Predicting political realignment
Most discussions of youth politics tout blog posts and text messages rather than grand realignments. Millennial Makeover: MySpace, YouTube & the Future of American Politics goes for the latter, and makes the case that America is at the crossroads of a political realignment driven by the distinct character of Millennials.
Though the book’s title references new media, those looking for a book focused on technology may be a bit surprised to find an account of the internal logic of past realignments followed by a prediction of the coming realignment. Millennial Makeover, based mostly on past research, constitutes an important effort by Baby Boomers to understand a new generation of Americans and slot them into the story of a shifting electorate. More modesty, however, might have done Millennial Makeover some good.
An Unwritten Future
Winograd and Hais see in the Millennial generation the ingredients of political realignments in America. These shifts are explained through a simple and perhaps simplistic formula: generational change plus technological change equals realignment. Looking back, the authors describe the cause and effect of these monumental shifts and come to a dichotomy between two types of realignments: idealist and civic. In the case of Millennials, the authors make the point that this generation is showing signs of the latter type based on its high political involvement, harmony among its various social subgroups, and a positive view toward government’s ability to solve the problems confronting America.
These Millennials, to be precise, are Americans born between the years 1982 and 2003. This generation spans 22 years and covers all people between the age of 5 and 27. To claim that this group, whose members range from those who may not yet be politically conscious to the highly politically socialized, shares a common political perspective is bold, to say the least. While the authors’ analysis of past realignment patterns, as well as certain character studies of the Millennials, are very convincing, Winograd and Hais are quick to generalize about young adults and toddlers alike. Their reliance on the 2006 election results, in particular, is quite reminiscent of the books following George W. Bush’s 2004 re-election that predicted a national shift to the right.
New Ways are Best
Looking to technology, Winograd and Hais cite new media tools like MySpace and YouTube as the technology utilized by Millennials to engage in politics and to re-shape the political process, pointing out that Democrats currently have the upper hand when it comes to dominating and actually utilizing new media. At the same time, they qualify their argument by pointing out that Republicans may not be doomed to extinction, despite their current disadvantage, acknowledging but minimizing the fact that both parties have had an ‘edge’ when it comes to campaign technology at one time or another. The Republicans, for example, were the technological adepts in 2004 due to their their tightly coordinated, nationwide voter lists, calling operations, and mobilization plans. These advantages have usually proven to be temporary and to level out over time.
Since the time the authors published Millennial Makeover, Facebook has already overtaken MySpace as the dominant social networking site and Twittter, a brand new social media site, has become all the rage. The technology that may be central to campaigns during the next 40 years when Millennials will be dominant may not even exist yet, so neither party will be able to claim an online edge for long. Minority status can often provoke innovation, indicating Republicans who will have a chance to update their campaigning techniques.
Continuing the conversation
The predictions that Winograd and Hais make in Millennial Makeover may very well come to fruition in the decades ahead, but for now it is too early to tell. The authors’ bold predictive attempt does reveal certain truths about the Millennials, but attempts to straddle too wide a group with too much confidence, and implicitly relies on the conceit that technology, the fastest-changing feature of modern life, will remain statically in favor of one party. Their book illustrates the need for further analysis of the electoral landscape in the years ahead and a broader conversation that gives voice to the views of the Millennials themselves. One thing is for sure: the Millennials still have growing up to do.