Nuclear Instability Watch

So it seems matters are coming to a head in Pakistan.  Today, anti-government protests in Lahore were confronted by riot police.  After violent confrontations, something truly surprising happened: the police broke.  They started to defy orders at every level, from the city magistrate on down.  The demonstrators are now filling Lahore, and the head of the opposition, Nawaz Sharif, is leading a convoy on to Islamabad to confront President Zardari.  Sharif described it as “a prelude to a revolution”.

There is a real chance the Pakistani government might not survive the next few days.  Probably not a large chance, but a definitely non-zero chance their government will fall.  I have to think that this is the “crisis” that will “test” Obama that Biden was talking about.

Update on Monday, March 16, 2009 at 12:58PM: Dodged a bullet.

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