With 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats, and 36 governorships up for election, it was expected that the battleground for the 2018 midterm election would be a large one. But even with these expectations, some close races are popping up in unexpected places. Even though South Dakota voted for President Donald Trump by 30 percentage points, for example, the race for the Governor’s Mansion in Pierre is set to be a toss-up.
No matter the result, the South Dakota gubernatorial election promises to be historic. If elected, Representative Kristi Noem, a Republican who serves the state’s at-large congressional district, would be the first female governor in South Dakota history. She’s running against State Senator Billie Sutton. Sutton, a Democrat, would be the first Democrat elected Governor since Richard Kneip in 1974 — one of the longest running Republican controls of a governorship in the country.
The 2016 election upsets in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania seemed to signal a Democratic collapse in the rural Midwest. But in 2018, the party is rebuilding and recreating their message across rural America in hopes of gaining back voters in the heartland. Democratic candidates across the Midwest are running on a mix of populist and centrist platforms, a strategy to be more competitive in even the most conservative states, like South Dakota.
The Republican incumbent governor, Dennis Daugaard, is one of the most popular governors in the nation. However, Daugaard is term-limited, which means the seat is open. With a number of national political trends pointing to a competitive political climate, including the Democratic advantage on the generic ballot, presidential approval rates in the low 40s, and high voter enthusiasm, there is a closer-than-usual race in South Dakota. The last three polls have shown Noem leading by three percentage points, Sutton leading by three percentage points, and a dead tie, respectively. The race has also been ranked a “toss-up” by the political forecasts at RealClearPolitics, FiveThirtyEight, the Cook Political Report, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
The Candidates
Rep. Kristi Noem is a four-term congresswoman. Noem rode into Congress on the Tea Party wave of 2010; today, she’s an avid supporter of President Donald Trump. As a member of the Ways and Means Committee, Noem worked closely with Trump on the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, including doubling the exemption for the estate tax.
Earlier this year, Noem faced a tough primary for the Republican nomination for governor in a race against the South Dakota Attorney General Marty Jackley. Noem managed to defeat Jackley, but it was a bruising and narrow victory, with a margin of 56 percent to 44 percent.
Noem selected State Representative Larry Rhoden of western South Dakota as her running mate for Lieutenant Governor. In September, President Donald Trump held a campaign rally in Sioux Falls, South Dakota to endorse Noem’s bid for governor. Noem has also been endorsed by the popular Republican incumbent governor and senior U.S. Senator from South Dakota, Dennis Daugaard and John Thune, respectively.
In the time after the primary, however, Noem focused on her congressional duties in Washington, which gave Democratic candidate and State Senator Billie Sutton a chance to campaign without attack and increase his name recognition within the state.
Sutton is running as pro-life, pro-gun, conservative Democrat with a strong personal story and the promise of bipartisanship. Sutton is from western South Dakota, which has more ranching and is traditionally more conservative. While in college, Sutton had a successful rodeo career as one of the world’s top saddle bronc rider, when a horse flipped over in the chute and paralyzed Sutton from the waist down. After the accident, Sutton decided to dedicate his adult life to public service. He was elected to the State Senate in 2010.
As the Sutton campaign team told the HPR, “most importantly, Billie Sutton is an authentic candidate with a powerful story, and people trust him to listen to the voters and work to bring people together to solve South Dakota’s challenges.”
Sutton’s running mate is Michelle Lavallee, a Sioux Falls businesswoman and life-long Republican. The Sutton and Lavallee ticket has received the endorsements of the state’s two largest newspapers, the Argus Leader and the Rapid City Journal.
In the final weeks of the campaign, both candidates have been crisscrossing the state, talking to and working to turnout voters. And both candidates know the race is close.
As the Sutton campaign team confirmed, “we know that there is a unique amount of momentum around this campaign. Our message of bipartisanship, ending politics as usual, and cleaning up state government is resonating with voters on both sides of the aisle.”
The Noem campaign team has organized a Get Out the Vote Rally with Vice President Mike Pence on the afternoon of November 5th, hoping to get a final boost the day before Election Day.
Prairie Populism and the Issues
As Jonathan Ellis, a political reporter for the Argus Leader, described in an interview with NPR’s Morning Edition with Cathy Wurzer, “there’s not a lot of issues that separate them, it’s by degrees.” Both Noem and Sutton are running as conservatives, even though they run under different party banners.
Sutton is running a campaign that some might characterize as “prairie populism.” Sutton promises to create jobs, improve education, improve health care, address mental health and opioid issues, and improve the South Dakota agricultural industry.
Sutton hopes to address the issues with populist policy proposals. First, Sutton supports raising teacher pay. After years of having the lowest paid teachers in the nation, South Dakota narrowly passed a teacher pay bill (it originally failed by one vote, then passed on a second vote) which moved South Dakota teachers from lowest paid to the fourth lowest paid in the nation. Sutton hopes to increase teacher pay even more.
But the biggest issue, according to the Sutton campaign, is government corruption and ethics. Sutton’s cowboy reputation makes him the outsider, or ‘change’ candidate, promising to round-up and fight corruption in the state government. As many voters in South Dakota remember, the Center for Public Integrity famously gave the South Dakota government an “F” in its State Integrity Investigation. There have been a number of ethics scandals in the South Dakota government of the last decade, including investigations of an EB-5 visa scandal and Gear Up scandal. In addition, South Dakota GOP members drew criticism when they repealed an anti-corruption law, known as Initiated Measure 22, passed by voters via ballot referendum. Voters looking to “drain the swamp” in Pierre and fight corruption may look to Sutton as a means of doing so.
However, Noem criticizes Sutton as being “too liberal” and “too risky” for South Dakota. Noem’s ads have worked to link Sutton to 2016 presidential candidate Hillary Clinton because of his endorsement of Clinton in 2016. Noem’s team has also repeatedly used a clip of Sutton saying, “I like the policies of Bernie,” to call Sutton a “Bernie Sanders liberal hiding under a cowboy hat.”
In an ad to fight back against Noem’s characterization of Sutton as liberal, Sutton said, “On TV, Kristi Noem is trying to make me Hillary Clinton. That’s just not true. I’m a pro-gun, fiscal conservative. I worked with Republicans to cut taxes.”
Still, Noem’s most powerful attack ad on Sutton has been a clip of Sutton, during a 2015 legislative meeting, asking, “just out of curiosity, why no discussion about a personal income tax?” South Dakota is currently one of seven states without a state income tax. This statement has raised concerns about whether Sutton would raise taxes or create a state income tax. Sutton has promised to not raise taxes, and has worked to refute the claim by providing additional context. In a statement, Sutton’s campaign manager, Suzanne Jones Pranger, said the laughter after Sutton’s comment shows it was intentionally humorous and “intended to bring some bipartisan levity to a five-hour task force meeting on getting schools the resources they need.”
On the issues, Noem positions herself as being the more conservative option. Noem supports President Donald Trump, who is still popular in South Dakota (a net seven point approval, and a 72 percent favorability amongst GOP members). Noem is running what some would consider a mainstream Republican platform. It is based on a central “Four Pillars of Protection.” Noem’s pillars are: protection from tax increases, protection from government growth, protection from federal intrusion, and protection from government secrecy. The Noem campaign lists her top priorities as rural revitalization, improving education’s impact, strengthening the family unit, fighting human trafficking, and campaign finance reform.
However, Sutton has criticized Noem for being a Washington insider and for taking money from corporate and special interests. Sutton’s ads claim that Noem “took nearly three million dollars from special interests, then used a loophole to funnel 1.6 million dollars of out-of-state cash to her campaign, even though South Dakotans voted to make it illegal.” A fact-check by Keloland News found that Noem did transfer 1.6 million dollars of out-of-state money to her campaign, but that it was not illegal. This is because even though voters approved Initiated Measure 22, which would have make it illegal to move such large amounts, it was repealed by the GOP Legislature. Sutton’s ads also point to the Noem campaign team being fined by the Republican Secretary of State Shantel Krebs for a campaign finance violation. This is true, as Noem’s running mate State Rep. Larry Rhoden was fined $200 for not filing a campaign document to officially form his Rhoden for Lt. Governor fundraising committee before the deadline.
Sutton has also flipped the script, attacking Noem for not being conservative enough on taxes. Sutton claims that while he worked with Republicans to cut taxes and fees 38 times from 2011 to 2018, Noem supported tax and fee hikes 57 times from 2007 to 2010. Sutton claims he is the candidate that will keep taxes low for South Dakotans, while Noem continues to point to the 2015 clip of Sutton speaking about a potential state income tax.
The Impact
As South Dakotans go to the polls on November 6th, they will decide who their next governor will be. Noem is hoping that her experience and conservative credentials, which more closely match the state’s historical partisan lean, will help her become the first female governor for South Dakota. Sutton, by contrast, is looking to bring bipartisanship to Pierre with his message of stopping government corruption and his strong personal narrative. Both Noem and Sutton have a shot at the position, and a shot at making history.
Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons/Samir Luther