China is fairly skilled at managing contradictions – especially since its foreign policies in the Middle East and United States are one.
So said Dr. John Garver, an eminent scholar of Chinese foreign policy, in his lecture at the Center for Government and International Studies on Monday afternoon. In a lecture hall of about 30 quiet graduate students, Garver delivered an hour and a half of lecturing that bordered on prophetic.
The lecture’s thesis was that Chinese foreign policy in the Middle East is fueled by two opposing objectives. On one hand, China – with an eye toward the future – wants to build friendly relationships with all countries in Middle East. Economics is the crux: China is on a quest to expand its export markets and find sources to fuel its “wasteful” energy consumption. Reaching out to the Middle East to satisfy that consumption, Garver said, is inevitable.
“The reality of the global oil market is that if a nation wants to increase its consumption of energy, it needs to go to the Middle East,” Garver said before singling out Iran as an important supplier. Within ten minutes of the lecture, Garver had already gotten it right: Two days later, Iran announced that its natural gas will be transferred to China via pipelines to help China meet its growing energy needs.
The other hand unveils the policy contradiction and explains why China does not give Middle Eastern nations unlimited support in the political realm. Drawing from his experience over the years with top-level political think tanks in China, Garver said the message is clear: Despite viewing American policies as “ill-considered” and “imprudent,” China will not and does not want to confront the United States in the Middle East.
China’s Open Hand to Libya
Garver predicted that China’s compliance with perceived American arrogance will continue well into the future. China strives to shape the international system in way to pursue its own interests, but not with policies that openly confront the West and threatens China’s access to American markets. “The success of such policies depends ultimately on China’s correct managing of its foreign policy contradictions,” Garver said.
These contradictions will weather any changes provoked by the Arab Spring. “China is fundamentally agnostic about the internal configuration of these countries. In Pakistan, in Iran, in Saudi Arabia, it doesn’t matter whether they are Islamic or secular,” Garver said. “The mindset is, ‘We’ll take these countries as a given. We’ll work with it.’”
Once again, Garver’s prediction is ringing true: China has already begun to reach out to and accept a post-Qaddafi Libya. With Libya as a precedent, it appears that China’s desire to establish relationships will indeed transcend such changes in regime.
A Nuclear Cover-Up
During a very brief question-and-answer session, a student asked if Iran’s alleged nuclear program was a cause of concern to China. Garver didn’t hesitate in saying no — and blaming the U.S. “The real reason why Iran wants a nuclear option is because Americans are unable to come to terms with the Islamic Republic of Iran, sanction after sanction. If Iran really wants nuclear weapons, it’s because of American policies,” he answered. And the biggest factor in Iran’s nuclear aspirations, he added, was the invasion of Iraq in 2003.
My one disagreement with Garver was here. An increased American presence in the Middle East certainly did nothing to quell Iranian fears. But factors other than America have influenced Iran as well, which Garver failed to mention either because of oversight or limited time. Head of the International Atomic Energy Agency Mohammed ElBaradei said in 2009 that countries with nuclear capabilities are treated more seriously than those without – a tantalizing bonus for an Iran that wishes to establish itself as the indisputable dominant power in the Middle East, above even its neighbors. And if threats of war and tensions with other nations can compel Iran to want to produce a nuclear weapon, then Saudi Arabia has played a prominent role as well.
Despite that disagreement, Garver’s lecture was memorable not only for its prophetic accuracy but also for the viewpoint in which he gave it. The media’s attention to American actions in the Middle East can easily eclipse how other nations approach the region, which is a shame. Hearing from China’s point of view in a lecture pervaded with accuracy offered an invaluable perspective, and it’s one that, unfortunately, Americans often go without.
Photo Credit: Official White House Photo