The 2012 election is finally starting to heat up folks. Candidates are making gaffes (Huckabee vs. Portman), others are defending their past (Romneycare), the incumbent says he’s not worried (Good luck with that Barack), and Florida is already breaking the rules (Florida to lose convention). But what we can begin to look at that has … Read more
In the race for the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination, few have put their names forth as actual candidates. Many are still waiting to see what the others do, or feel it’s too early. So the roster is thin so far. Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the House, has dithered his way to a website, NewtExplore2012.com, … Read more
Ann Coulter, a popular yet divisive conservative author, isn’t fond of guessing who will win the Presidency: “The funny thing about this is I normally hate, hate, hate playing the prediction game,” she recently told MSNBC’s Lawrence O’Donnell, “because, you know, you come to me for my historical sweep, the larger analysis; you can ask … Read more
7:02 pm: Event over, thanks for tuning in. Post-event discussion to come later. 7:01 pm: Harvard freshman asks Cantor about Pence Amendment and whether it was an economic or ideological issue. Cantor responds by saying that “Planned Parenthood was engaging in some very ugly tactics.” Upsetting, to say the least. 6:59 pm: Kennedy School student … Read more
Long-shot presidential candidates face numerous hurdles when it comes to mounting a credible campaign for their party’s nomination. Considering the name-brand advantage enjoyed by some of candidates for next year’s Republican primaries, and the fact that none of the big names have announced their 2012 plans, making the decision to jump into the race is … Read more
The astute politician is keenly aware of whose votes he needs to compete for. Some are in his column from day one. Others will never be. He focuses his energy on “swing” voters, those elusive, independent, and rather indecisive individuals who decide the fate of election after election. Naturally, in order to win the swing … Read more
As Henry Shull recently noted in his post “Decision 2012: Handicapping the Hopefuls with Danny Hayes”, there is a new possible candidate in the GOP Presidential mix: Michele Bachmann, who suffers a large name recognition deficit and is a long-shot candidate for the nomination. But how hard would it be, exactly, for her to win … Read more
In January, I talked to Professor Danny Hayes at the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies at American University’s School of Public Affairs about prospects for the primary and general presidential elections in 2012. We discussed potential Republican candidates, factors that will affect the outcomes of these elections, and even who might be our next … Read more
Well, I guess I underestimated my own state’s independence. In my blog post last month about independent gubernatorial candidates in today’s political climate, I crassly proclaimed that neither Massachusetts candidate Tim Cahill nor Maine candidate Eliot Cutler (’68) were considered by voters as “practical choices.” As Tuesday’s results reveal, I correctly predicted Cahill’s inability to … Read more
This column first appeared in the Harvard Independent. In the weeks before Election Day, we were besieged by polling data, breathlessly conveyed as breaking news by unimaginative journalists. This might seem rather benign, a mild diversion for political obsessives. But I’m not sure polls are quite so innocent. We either need to train a more … Read more