Millions of Gen Zers, the age cohort that comprises individuals born between the mid-1990s and the early 2010s (sometimes called post-Millennials, iGens, or Homelanders), were still in diapers when the Twin Towers fell. The oldest Gen Zers were donning backpacks for the first time to start kindergarten, and the youngest would not be born for years. They are the first generation to respond to the question, “Where were you on 9/11?” with “I don’t know.”
It’s no surprise, then, that young Americans’ views on terrorism are changing rapidly. According to polling conducted by the Harvard Public Opinion Project, of a list of eight possible foreign policy priorities, only 17.1 percent of the Gen Zers surveyed (ages 18 to 24) listed terrorism as the most important. Comparatively, Millennials aged 25-29 were nearly 30 percent more likely to put terrorism first.
Gen Zers’ hazy-at-best memories of 9/11 — their inability to clearly recall the attacks and the concomitant confusion, fear, and grief — offer a partial explanation for that pronounced intergenerational discrepancy. But other factors are also at play. The political backlash against the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the unprecedented share of nonwhite individuals in the Gen Z cohort, and intensifying concerns over climate change have shaped Gen Zers’ unique perspective on the relative importance of counter-terrorism — a perspective that will, in turn, reshape the landscape of American foreign policy.
Coming of Age During the War on Terror
Millennials, the generation preceding Generation Z, gained political consciousness during a period when politics revolved around terrorism. The Bush administration initiated wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, initially with broad popular support, during Millennials’ formative years in elementary, middle, and high school. Furthermore, the September 11 attacks themselves were a defining moment in the collective memory of Millennials. According to a Pew Research Center study, 86 percent of Millennials rank 9/11 as among the top 10 most important events of their lifetime — a higher percentage than any other generation and any other event from the 1980s through today.
By contrast, for Generation Z, memories of the energetic early phases of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are almost as faint as those of 9/11. The oldest Gen Zers surveyed in the HPOP poll were in only third grade during the initial invasion. Few have clear memories of President Bush’s “Mission Accomplished” speech, the capture of Saddam Hussein, or the Second Battle of Fallujah. Instead, many of the Gen Zers surveyed were becoming politically aware as the longest war in American history dragged on and turned increasingly unpopular. Public opinion of the war reached an inflection point in 2006 — more Americans disapproved of the war than supported it — when current 18-24 year-olds were in elementary and middle school. In that same year, voters rebuked Bush and his foreign policy in a landslide midterm election victory for the Democrats. Two years later, in the first presidential election most Gen Zers can recall, Americans overwhelmingly elected a president committed to withdrawing American troops from Iraq and Afghanistan.
Beyond the impact of a shifting national conversation on Gen Zers, members of Gen Z have spent most of their conscious life in a country in which Americans are six times more likely to be killed by a shark or win the lottery than die in a terrorist attack perpetrated by a foreigner. On the other hand, domestic terrorist attacks, often fueled by white nationalism, have been on the rise: an epidemic of violence largely attributable to and remediable by domestic, as opposed to foreign, policy.
The Most Diverse Generation in U.S. History
Generation Z’s exceptionally diverse demographics offer another potential explanation for its distinct foreign policy perspective, as far more Gen Zers come from communities of color than any previous generation in American history. According to a recent Pew Research Center study, nearly 48 percent of Generation Z is nonwhite, compared to 39 percent of Millennials, 30 percent of Gen Xers, and only 18 percent of Baby Boomers. That demographic discrepancy recurs in the HPOP data: 48 percent of 18-24 year-olds surveyed were nonwhite, compared to 41 percent of 25-29 year-olds.
Within the age groups surveyed, there is a racial difference in perspective on foreign policy issues. Twenty-two point-six percent of whites consider the prevention of terrorism to be America’s most important foreign policy goal, whereas only 15.8 percent of Hispanics and 12.2 percent of blacks agree. The fact that counterterrorism-oriented foreign policy finds disproportionate support among white people, and Gen Z comprises record numbers of people of color, means that overall, Gen Zers are less likely to believe that defending against terrorism ought to be America’s foreign policy priority.
(Climate) Changing Priorities
The last five years have been the hottest on record. Across the United States and the globe, natural disasters, such as wildfires, droughts, hurricanes, and floods, have become more frequent and more intense. The destabilization of the Earth’s climate strains water supplies and agriculture, threatens low-lying coastal areas, facilitates the spread of diseases, destroys the biosphere, and catalyzes mass migrations of peoples. As these effects become amplified over time, Generation Z will, increasingly, bear the brunt of climate change.
In that context of climate change and environmental degradation, support for urgent action to solve climate issues is high among young people. Over 70 percent of the Gen Zers polled by HPOP agree that climate change is a problem, 66 percent of whom think it is “a crisis and demands urgent action.” Gen Zers believe that climate change needs to be a foreign policy priority, not just a domestic one. The HPOP data indicate that protecting the environment is just as important a foreign policy goal for Gen Zers as preventing the rise of terrorist groups. Although there is also broad-based support for climate action among Millennials, in the foreign policy realm Millennials still prioritize terrorism over environmental protection.
As the 2020 presidential campaign intensifies and candidates vie for young people’s support, climate action will become a point of consensus — and specific policy plans to ameliorate climate change points of contention — within the Democratic field. Although every major Democratic candidate supports policy change to alleviate global warming, a recent New York Times survey of the declared candidates found that there was little agreement on the right approach to domestic climate policies — the Green New Deal and nuclear energy are particularly divisive.
In the international realm, Democrats unanimously support rejoining the historic Paris Agreement, from which President Trump plans to withdraw the United States in 2020. Beyond the Paris Agreement there are many other lesser-known international efforts Democratic candidates might champion. One key initiative is the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, agreed to in 2016 by the parties to the Protocol, which went into effect earlier this year. The amendment restricts the use of hydrofluorocarbons, potent greenhouse gases common in refrigerators and air conditioners. Although the Trump Administration has refused to sign on to the agreement, over a dozen Republican Senators support it, citing the projected economic benefits of tens of thousands of jobs and a $12 billion reduction in the U.S. trade deficit.
Climate action at the international level, through multilateral agreements like the Kigali Amendment, is a growing priority for Generation Z. As for terrorism, few Gen Zers have clear memories of 9/11 and the ensuing War on Terror, an unprecedented share of the cohort is nonwhite, and climate change is replacing terrorism as a defining issue. Evidently, Generation Z is not afraid.
This article is part of a series analyzing data from the Harvard Public Opinion Project’s Spring 2019 Youth Poll. Other articles in the series can be found here, and the poll data can be found here.
Image Source: Google Images/U.S. Embassy in Canada