However grudgingly, the House of Commons ought to pass Prime Minister May’s Brexit deal. There are two options available to the United Kingdom at this moment: This deal or no deal.
Members advocating a ‘people’s vote,’ a rerun of the referendum to leave the European Union, are a profile in political cowardice; It is a clayton’s position and they know it. A people’s vote already took place in June 2016, and as Parliament has decided to accept the result of that referendum, it must be accountable for that decision.
While a second vote has become an easy out for MPs unwilling to nail their colors to a mast, there are two consequences of such a vote which render it unlikely. First, the United Kingdom would be engulfed in further political turmoil if Remain were to succeed in a rerun of the Brexit vote. After spending billions of pounds trying to sever relations with the European Union and crowding out other important political debates for two years, Westminster choosing to remain in the Union would be an act marred by desperation, indecision, and embarrassment. Second, given that Article 50 has already been triggered and a leave date has been set, there are serious legal questions as to whether the country can change its course.
A ‘No Deal’ outcome would be disastrous for the United Kingdom. The Bank of England warns that Britain could see up to an eight percent contraction in its GDP if no deal is struck, which would portend a recession greater than the global financial crisis in 2008. In the last 40 years, European Union states have become so intertwined that, from health to house prices, a no deal would impact every part of Britons’ lives. The Daily Express compiled a helpful, if not exhaustive, list of areas disrupted should Parliament shrink from its task. Rejecting May’s agreement would leave the island nation effectively without ties to the continent; come March 2019 the English Channel might as well be an ocean.
To be clear: the deal is not pretty. Reality was always going catch up with the runaway fantasies of Britain leaving the Union stronger than ever. Members who are unwilling to pass the deal seem to forget that negotiation was always going to involve compromise. In terms of sheer size, the 27-country bloc of the European Union dwarfs the United Kingdom at the negotiating table, meaning the House must accept that access to the Single Market — or indeed any deal — will come with unfavorable terms. The European Union would have no member states if countries could gain access to its powerful economic network without joining the customs union.
Unfortunately for Britain, no outcome of Brexit will be as advantageous as the status quo. At present, the United Kingdom enjoys the benefits of EU membership in addition to special negotiated exemptions to regulations. There will be no such sweetheart deals going forward.
While not ideal, May’s proposal is the best possible solution — and the public knows it. Polling commissioned by the notoriously pro-Leave Daily Mail has the electorate at 41 percent to 38 percent in favor of MPs ratifying the May agreement. Of those polled, 52 percent agreed that May had struck the best terms available to the United Kingdom. And how could this not be the case? The prime minister did not walk in to the negotiating room alone; She did so with the entirety of Her Majesty’s Civil Service with their shoulder to the wheel. No doubt Foreign Office bureaucrats had war-gamed every scenario. The suggestion that somehow a new occupant in No. 10 Downing could better negotiate with Jean-Claude Juncker is naive.
Any Brexit outcome will be tough, but the because the voters have already voted in favor of “Leave,” it is the Parliament’s responsibility to make the process as painless as possible.