The revolution was the easy part. In the wake of the various governmental transitions in Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen, and other nations across the Middle East, the idea of democracy in the region is once more in full swing. With the death of the traditional autocracies, reformers dream of a new wave of representative, constitutional government. Nonetheless, for all the hopeful images in Tahir Square, improved government in the Arab world is neither inevitable nor preordained. There remains significant work yet to be done.
So far, the nations of the world seem eager to promote democracy in these revolutionary states’ constitutional moments. Western nations have sent experts, watchdogs, and briefing papers to provide advice on the correct way to structure a democratic constitution. Within this plethora of planning, a small but incredibly important tool that could aid democratization has been overlooked, however: the visa. By easing travel requirements and affording North African citizens the ability to visit and study in healthy democratic states, Western powers could greatly improve chances of a democratic transition during the constitutional moment.
Breaking and Building
The headless, popular movements in the Middle East have exhibited an unprecedented enthusiasm for the idea of democracy. Indeed, in his speech on the Egyptian revolution, President Obama quoted Martin Luther King that “there is something in the soul that cries out for freedom,” and with good reason. For all the President’s optimism, however, Middle East states’ aspirations towards more representative governments remain hindered by the region’s lack of democratic traditions. Of the 22 members of the Arab League, for example, only Iraq, and to a lesser extent Lebanon, enjoy relatively democratic systems of governance.
As such, while protests may provide dramatic images, the real work of building institutions will prove far more difficult and complex. As Stephen Calleya, professor and director of the Mediterranean Academy for Diplomatic Studies at the University of Malta, told the HPR, “We must seize the historic moment we see folding out on our screens. No one should take for granted these events. These actors are championing democratic principles and the rule of law. Now is the time to stand up and help by launching effective policy mechanisms.” Calleya calls for a systematic strategy of assisting nations developing their democracy, though he recognizes that the responsibility ultimately lies with the new revolutionaries.
A New Hope?
Histories of democratic transitions offer less encouraging signs. Indeed, many experts draw parallels between the political heritage of the newly liberated North African states and post- Cold War nations. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, those Soviet satellites with previous democratic experience, particularly in Eastern Europe, swiftly formed representative organizations, while previously authoritarian states, especially in Central Asia, did not. Anthony Jones, professor of government at Northeastern University, argues, “Eastern Europe had a whole generation of people who grew up in democracies. While they were able to return to what they had, the rest of the Soviet Union had difficulties, having no previous experience with democracy. Each state went back to what they had: authoritarianism.” Unfortunately, there appear better analogies between North Africa and Central Asia than with Eastern Europe.
Like Central Asian states, Northern African states lack both experience with democratic participation and access to functioning models of such governments. The Middle East has the lowest levels of democracy in the world, trailing behind even sub-Saharan Africa. Calleya noted at a recent talk at Harvard University, “The impossible visa program makes it difficult for North African people to travel to democratic states to experience and learn about democratic governance.” Coming off the heady success of the early revolution, states like Tunisia and Egypt want democracy. But as expectation encounters the reality of the process, patience wears thin. “The people have incredible expectations,” Callayaesaid. “They want to start seeing tangible results.” Should the initial impressions of pluralistic government fall short of the expectations, Calleya fears, the region may quickly return to its dictated heritage.
Friending the Middle East
If democracy fails, the most likely culprit may be preexisting divisions among Arab societies. Worryingly, signs of discord have begun to appear among people recently united in revolution. In Egypt, Mubarak’s fall may have enabled long-repressed tensions between Arab Muslims and Christian Copts to fissure Egyptian society. A recent women’s protest met with verbal and sexual assault represents a monumental break with the respect shown to protestors in Tahrir Square. In an interview with the HPR, Susan D. Hyde, professor at Yale University, noted that functioning democracy help arbitrate internal conflict: “Democracy can be a way to mediate those disagreements without resorting to civil war or repressive dictatorship.” The implications of failure are enormous. The window of opportunity presented by the constitutional moment can easily be lost, and no amount of democracy exportation or advice can replace public will for democratization that can be fostered by firsthand experience with democracy. “The problem with North African states is a lack of previous democratic and capitalist experience,” Jones told the HPR. “The states could revert to tribalism, fragment, or sink into civil war.”
Yet Jones remains confident that 2011 Egypt is distinct from 1990 Uzbekistan, thanks to new forms of media. “We live in the 21st century. They may not have truly democratic experience, but they have seen it. While they do not have a social democratic institutional base to return to, they may have enough exposure to inform that transition.” Democracy does not have a user manual, and no amount of counsel or material aid can be substituted for an understanding of how democratic institutions function. Regardless, the weak democratic tradition and lack of access to functioning democracies are some of the most easily remedied hurdles facing revolutionary states in the Middle East. Former Lebanese presidential candidate and visiting Harvard law professor Chibli Mallat told the HPR, “There should be more active engagement with the new voices of the Middle East. Part of this would not only be a more relaxed visa policy, but a structured and intensive dialogue with citizens of these countries by and large.”
The Welcome Sign
If fears of terrorism and illegal immigration are the primary motives behind strict visa requirements, perhaps Western countries should reconsider their strategy. A string of failed states across the Middle East have the potential to produce far more unrest and extremism than a democracy. In a speech at Harvard, Professor Mallat called upon academics, businesses and governments to “join the Middle Eastern nonviolent revolution.” Revolution has created a window for democratic transition. Rather than tweeting democracy, perhaps the West should consider inviting others in.
Caitria O’Neill ‘11 is a Staff Writer.