The “Christian right,” a movement of predominantly evangelical Christians, has dominated the political landscape of American conservatism for decades. However, in the face of increasing national secularism, apathy, and disillusionment, the group’s future is now less than certain. Part of this may well be the usual doom mongering that often besets either side of American politics after electoral defeat. But, there is something more here than just unsubstantiated nay saying. Why should the Christian right support a Republican Party that prioritizes the economy and whose presidential candidate pointed out in his television ads on abortion that he favored exceptions to outlawing abortion altogether?
As a percentage, slightly more evangelical Christians than Mormons voted for Mitt Romney (79 percent to 78 percent), but in the election’s aftermath they were castigated by commentators for failing to turn out. And yet, the majority of the movement can hardly support a Democratic Party that is louder on the issue of same-sex marriage than ever before and whose leaders remain firmly “pro-choice.” The movement risks major voter apathy unless it can find a mainstream candidate able to inspire the Christian right to once again turn out to vote. However, the group’s increasing alienation from the “mainstream” is making this ever the more difficult.
The Current State of Christian Conservatism
The greatest factor currently influencing the Christian right’s future is the ongoing battle for the GOP’s “soul.” Whether the party politically shifts to the left, the right, or neither will matter considerably in terms of the movement’s ultimate fate. If the party’s focus moves to the right on social and economic issues, it appears extremely likely the Christian right could remain one of the driving forces behind the GOP. A party leadership that campaigned against abortion (with no exceptions) and reaffirmed a nation-wide ban on same-sex marriage would undoubtedly attract significant support from the Christian right. However, this would come at the expense of a loss of support from more liberal Christians, undermining the party’s electoral chances at the national level.
Michael Winters, a journalist and writer for the National Catholic Reporter points out that there is a growing disconnect between older movement members who advocate “you can’t believe what scientists tell you” and younger evangelicals increasingly concerned with issues such as global warming. If the Republican Party ultimately maintains its current trajectory (not unlikely for a conservative party), then a slow bleed of influence and interest from the Christian right will probably result. If the Republican Party moves towards the center of the political spectrum, a loss of influence for the movement is inevitable. Conversely, the shift may well benefit the GOP nationally, as it could more easily reach out to independents and conservative Democrats.
Make no mistake, the Christian right need to be proactive to survive and grow, especially as the Democrats are on the offensive on social issues such as abortion, same-sex marriage and immigration. In the 2012 election campaign, it appeared to John Carr, the former Executive Director of the U.S Conference of Catholic Bishops’ Department of Justice, Peace and Human Development, that “Planned Parenthood was Obama’s running mate.” Typically the conservative right creates discussion around sensitive social issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage; for the Obama campaign to do so in 2012 was something of a paradigm shift. Indeed the Moral Majority organization founded in the late 1970’s (and the precursor of the current Christian right) was entirely focused on combating the “social decay” of the nation. If this new style of Democratic campaigning continues in the future, the Christian right risks losing the initiative it has so long enjoyed.
In returning to the battle for the Republican Party’s “soul,” it’s easy to see why there simply have not been prominent leaders to channel the high levels of emotion many members of the Christian right feel over these issues into political success. Fiscal conservatism and policy has become far more important than social issues—at least to the GOP. We need look no further than Sen. Marco Rubio’s response to President Obama’s State of the Union, in which his criticisms were only of big government and poor economic management. If the battle for the Republican Party ends with the GOP continuing to focus almost entirely on economic issues, we can expect to see not only the Christian right’s support for the party dwindle, but also the Party’s capacity to lend political authority to the Republican Party recede.
While the debate on abortion remains divisive and is likely to continue to split public opinion within the United States (typically the two “sides” are divided by only a few percentage points), for the conceivable future, that is not the case for same sex marriage. While age has little impact on whether individuals are “pro-life” or “pro-choice,” same-sex marriage is supported by 53 percent of 18-44 year olds, but only 24 percent of those over 45. The age disparity indicates that same-sex marriage is a generational issue and that will, as time passes, enjoy increasing support across the nation.
While conservative groups have been successful in pushing forward laws in many states outlining marriage as between a man and a woman, these can hardly be seen as permanent bans on same-sex marriage in the long term. As President Obama throws his support behind the right to marry for all couples, the Christian right risks being caught on the wrong side of an issue that will increasingly see its members in the minority; an issue that may well become even more divisive and important to Americans in the future. In the words of Reverend Albert Mohler, Jr., President of the Southern Baptist Theological Seminary, “An increasingly secularized America understands our positions, and has rejected them.”
The Future
So what is the “doomsday” scenario? What if the Republican Party shifts to the center of the political spectrum and focuses almost entirely on fiscal matters, while at the same time Americans continue to drift away from organized religion (or at least, away from its participation in politics)? In all likelihood, Evangelical Christians will become less partisan, but not less political. The very nature of devout, organized, and moralistic religions will always influence their adherents to become involved in the public domain. When a religion mandates its adherents make social changes with a moralistic framework and provides its members with a structure and outlet for those views, it is inevitable that they will attempt to influence policy.
No matter what happens, the Christian right will not be completely dismembered in the immediate future, nor will it lose total relevance before the upcoming 2016 presidential elections (especially given the United States’ penchant for changing parties after two terms). Ironically, the Christian right could achieve a new lease on life with one simple policy change that is entirely unrelated to religion—immigration reform.
The U.S Census Bureau recorded that, as of 2011, 16.7 percent of Americans identified as Hispanic or Latino. Gallup Poll results show that Hispanics are more likely to attend church than the average America. However, while many Latino voters are socially and economically conservative, in 2012, 71 percent of Hispanic voters chose Obama over Romney in the presidential election. Simply put, the Republican Party’s intransigence in this area has lost them millions of voters whose support they would normally enjoy. The GOP and its supporters have been portrayed as xenophobic or racist; a recent video showing Senator McCain being jeered at a town hall meeting for suggesting it would be impractical to deport the “11 million people living here legally” is just the latest example. The Christian right and the Republican establishment must shake this damaging stigma if they want to compete in the 2014 and 2016 elections.
Fortunately, the party seems to have recognized this particular peril, and has put Sen. Rubio forward as a possible solution. Sen. Rubio is everything the Republican Party is not; he is young, Latino and pro-immigration reform. Nominating him to deliver the Republican response to the State of the Union was an important step forward in presenting a younger, more appealing GOP. Whether the senator will be the party’s chosen nominee for 2016 is entirely speculation. What is clear is that the next leader of the GOP will not come from among the current stock of the last two primaries. Characters such as Newt Gingrich, Michele Bachmann, and Rick Santorum are worse than unelectable; they are polarizing at a time when the party desperately needs to be inclusive.
Ultimately, the future of the Christian right will be shaped by the events of the next three years. Whether the movement utterly disintegrates under generational pressure and societal change or enjoys resurgence is up to the leaders of the Republican Party. If they decide to stand against same-sex marriage and against immigration reform, they can expect to see more of the same. However, if the movement decides to make the tough choices on social issues and can successfully invite in Hispanic Catholics, it could once again assume its traditional role of dominance in American politics.