Ann Coulter, a popular yet divisive conservative author, isn’t fond of guessing who will win the Presidency: “The funny thing about this is I normally hate, hate, hate playing the prediction game,” she recently told MSNBC’s Lawrence O’Donnell, “because, you know, you come to me for my historical sweep, the larger analysis; you can ask a homeless guy to make a prediction, who cares? But,” she added, “in this case I gave a prediction, and I warned the CPAC kids, maybe you can laugh at me in two years, but there it is, that’s my prediction.” This time, she has provided a prediction as well as an endorsement – “We run Chris Christie, he’s the only one who can beat Obama; if it’s not Christie, it’s going to be Romney.” Earlier, at CPAC, she stated: “Well, I’ll put it in a nutshell: if we don’t run Chris Christie, Romney will be the nominee, and we’ll lose.” Suddenly, she has decided to openly state what has long appeared to be conventional wisdom as to the nominee, she has surprisingly picked a moderate with no intention to run as her preference, and has stated her belief that the President will win re-election. In order to explain why these three statements are so important, it is important to look at them individually. But wait – why listen to Ann Coulter? Well, she claims she’s been right before (“And by the way, I warned you about McCain. Lone voice in the woods,”she said at CPAC) and her comments provide valuable insight as to how 2012 may develop.
Coulter’s for Christie, but Christie won’t run.
Gov. Christie’s win in 2009 (as well as that of Gov. McDonnell in Virginia) was seen as a rebuke of the President’s fledgling agenda. Since then, Christie has established himself as an effective and reasonably popular governor (his approval rating was at 51% in October 2010). Yet Coulter is seen by many to be a member of the far right, and Christie is much closer to the center. Mike Gallagher, a radio talk show host and fellow conservative, has delineated numerous conservative concerns with Christie: “look at gun control, look how he is on […] cap-and-trade, look how he is on, you know, abortion. Go down the list on the social issues.” But Coulter’s endorsement of Christie is perhaps a signal that she recognizes that Republicans will need to move closer to the center in order to win the presidency. Christie has proven his appeal by winning in a blue state. But why not former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, who has more gubernatorial experience than Christie?
Romney will run, but would lose to the President
Unfortunately, conservatives do not see reliable leadership in Romney. Tammy Bruce, another conservative talk show host, has called Romney “Velveeta”, noting that Obama will win because voters will prefer a real liberal to a pseudo-liberal alternative. It does not help that RomneyCare (Romney’s health care reform as Governor) is also known as “ObamaCare Lite”. Furthermore, though Coulter knows that Christie is not perfect, she thinks that he can be made to rethink some of his positions. “You can change someone’s mind; you can’t inject an IQ in a candidate,” she said during her aforementioned appearance on MSNBC. Perhaps she may see his relative lack of political experience as a plus, as he may not have solid stances and be amenable to moving further to the right when necessary. But though Romney’s attributes as a candidate may not be enough to win him the general election, they may be enough to win the nomination.
But Romney will still win the nomination
It is odd to note the idea that Romney, as flawed as many conservatives think him to be, will still likely be the nominee. Why is this the case? There is another candidate Coulter thinks could win the nomination: Sarah Palin. Coulter likes Palin; she wrote the Human Events article naming Palin “Conservative of the Year” in 2008. Yet Coulter does not think a run would be a prudent move for the former Governor of Alaska. “I think it would be a step down for her to run for President,” she says, adding that “she’s huge, she has enormous power, […] I think it would be crazy for her to run for President.” Should she run, many feel Gov. Palin will be a formidable candidate – in the words of prospective candidate Tim Pawlenty, the former governor of Minnesota, she is a “force of nature”. However, Gov. Palin does not appear to be engaging in the typical machinations necessary to mount a presidential run. If she does not, it appears that Romney, with extensive economic experience, will be a strong candidate for primary voters looking for a way out of the growing deficit. Furthermore, Coulter believes that “if we don’t run Chris Christie, it’s going to be Romney because Republican primary voters for some reason refuse to do any research before voting. They vote for the name of anyone they’ve ever heard before.” The nomination, according to Coulter, will be his.
What does this all mean? 2012 seems to be the President’s for the taking. Christie has adamantly stated that he will not run, going as far as to say that “Short of suicide, I don’t know what I have to do to convince you people that I’m not running.” Coulter thinks a Palin run is unlikely, and thus Romney will win. Yet Romney will not defeat President Obama. So far, it’s difficult to argue with her predictions. Incumbent presidents usually do have the edge in their bids for re-election. It is news that is unfortunate for Republicans as they make plans to take back the White House and the Senate. But it is news that they should keep in mind as they try to defy Coulter’s predictions in 2012. They very well might; or else Coulter will be right.
Photo credit: Kyle Cassidy, Wikimedia Commons. Photo URL: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/26/Ann_Coulter2.jpg.