Editorial note: The following article appeared in our print magazine as it was being sent to press at the height of the primary campaign season.
If and when America has sufficiently caught up with the Kardashians, it should perhaps turn to reruns of this year’s presidential primary debates for its trashy TV fix. In some ways, the race has truly resembled reality TV—in one of the key players involved, in the nature of the insults hurled, and in the addicting quality of its narratives. Questions like “Will one of the major political parties really choose the “You’re fired” guy?” have glued eyes to TVs, phone and computer screens for nearly a year. And yet, there will come a time when the identities of the nominees will not be so interesting—namely when the nominees become party candidates.
“The presidential race is a big story, until it’s not,” Joel Goldstein, a St. Louis University law professor and author of the book The Modern American Vice Presidency: The Transformation of a Political Institution, told the HPR. “Then, the vice presidential race becomes the big story.”
And with Ted Cruz’s April 27 announcement of Carly Fiorina as his running mate in the scenario he secures the nomination, the starting gun to the VP race has certainly sounded. Who else might join the race?
The Clinton Choice
The way Diaz Rosillo sees it, Clinton has two vice presidential options. Firstly, she could amplify her existing strengths by picking someone to energize her base, namely a Latino, African American or woman.
A few Latino options have been discussed in the early stages of running mate speculation. Both Julian Castro, current U.S. secretary of housing and urban development and former mayor of San Antonio, and Tom Perez, secretary of labor, have been considered.
However, Professor Joel Goldstein sees a potential strategic pitfall for those two particular options.
“Since Clinton was part of the Obama administration during his first term, somebody who wasn’t might have more appeal,” Goldstein said.
However, Clinton and the Democratic party may not actually need any help with Latino voters if their general election opponent is the candidate who all but called Mexican immigrants rapists and drug smugglers.
“Just putting Trump out there, if that doesn’t boost Latino turnout, it’s hard to think what would,” Goldstein said.
So who is behind vice presidential door number two?
“She could go for someone who could help her with a demographic she’s not doing so well with, most notably working class white males,” Diaz Rosillo said.
That may be a doubly important demographic for Clinton to target with her VP pick, given its support for her primary opponent, Bernie Sanders, and likely general election foe, Trump.
To that end, a white male from the Midwest could be particularly helpful. Sherrod Brown, senator from Ohio, fits that bill. What’s more, the perception of Brown as an ally of Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren could help Clinton expand electorally to the left wing of the Democratic Party which has fueled Sanders’ lengthy bid.
Another important consideration in a running mate for Clinton is his or her age, given her own: 69 on election day.
“She’s old enough that I think she needs to have somebody who will be a plausible successor, just in case,” Goldstein said.
Castro is the youngest of those discussed, at 42. Perez is 56, and Brown 63.
For all the novelty of Clinton—securing the Democratic party nomination will make her the first female presidential nominee from one of the two major parties—the considerations that will likely factor into her VP calculus are fairly commonplace. The same will not be true for the man Diaz Rosillo thinks likely to be her opponent come November.
The Donald’s Decision
The constitutional requirement that presidents in fact have vice presidents will put a forcible end to the one-man show phase of the Trump campaign.
However, Trump faces greater challenges in his running mate selection than an unwillingness to share the spotlight. He has made a brand and a winning primary campaign of his political outsider status. But that attribute—utter lack of political experience—has not historically proven to be a winning one in the general election. Of all 44 presidents in the history of the country, only three had not held elected office prior to the presidency, and all three came from high ranking-military backgrounds (Zachary Taylor, Ulysses S. Grant, and Dwight Eisenhower). It should be noted that, if he actually receives the nomination, Trump is already beating long odds—in that same time span, only three other losing nominees, in addition to the three already mentioned, had the lack of background he does.
So Americans have generally been reluctant to elect an outsider—how would they feel about two? Presidential nominees with backgrounds as governors provide somewhat of an analog to Trump, as they too are Washington outsiders.
“If you think about the governors, they’ve all picked Washington insiders,” Goldstein said.
“So the conventional thing for Trump to do would be to show he is serious about government and pick someone with national security experience or legislative experience.”
Trump is cognizant of the need to bolster the legitimacy of his hypothetical ticket, having said in February that he wants a number two who is “political” to “get lots of great legislation that we all want passed.”
But can Trump navigate the vice presidential paradox of needing political experience and outsider identity at the same time? Diaz Rosillo thinks there might be a way and has a very specific option in mind: John Kasich. The current Trump opponent, Ohio governor, and former Ohio congressman strikes the right balance between experience and inexperience. Despite his experience as governor, he left the House of Representatives in 2001.
“He has a lot of Washington experience, but he’s not necessarily a Washington insider. He’s fought the system, he’s made a name for himself most recently as a governor, not as a senator or a member of Congress,” Diaz Rosillo said. “He’ll bring the legislative experience from his time in Congress many years ago, and he’ll bring the executive experience from his time as governor.”
Another potential solution to the experienced outsider conundrum may come from the military. Picking a high-ranking general would elevate a Trump ticket’s foreign policy and national security standing, all while avoiding Washington.
“A general as running mate would help assure people concerned about Trump’s foreign policy and national security experience,” Diaz Rosillo said. Although they are leaders, generals typically have a lack of specifically political experience in common with Trump. “A general would be very bold, but I think it’s less likely than him picking someone with more political experience.”
Outside of Kasich and a decorated military leader, who, strategically speaking, should Trump have as running mate? A serious limiting factor may be who is willing to have Trump.
Who Will Work With Trump?
Trump lacks more than experience. He is also missing robust support from groups that make up an increasingly large portion of the population and the electorate. He has demographic deficiencies, both those consistent with the Republican party at large and those exacerbated by his statements on Mexican-funded walls and legal punishment for women who obtain abortions.
Sean Spicer, Chief Strategist and Communications Director at the Republican National Committee, doubts the ability of a VP choice to expand into target demographics, desirable for his party though that might be.
“There are a lot of demographics that we as a party want to do better with. Younger women, blacks, Hispanics, Asians,” Spicer told the HPR. “If you choose a woman, that doesn’t necessarily mean you’re going to do better with women. There’s a bit of a misperception about that. It’s never proven true. Geraldine Ferraro was on the Dem ticket, and they didn’t win. Sarah Palin was on the 2008 ticket and they didn’t win.”
At any rate, Trump’s poor numbers with Latino and female voters may pale in severity to his inability to unite the Republican Party behind him. This could restrict the number of Republican Party elites Trump could choose who would actually run with him.
“Trump may have a problem, not in that many Republicans are going to vote Democratic, but in that some of them might simply not vote,” Diaz Rosillo said. “One challenge will be to unite the party and get Republicans who currently don’t support him—not just don’t support him, but are really actively against him—to come into the fold and vote.”
The RNC would support a Trump bid, Spicer said. Still, in the course of the primary, many of the party’s leaders have come out strongly against Trump. Republican heavy hitters Scott Walker, Nikki Haley, and Lindsey Graham have all endorsed Cruz in the three candidate-stage of the primary. In his endorsement statement, Graham lauded Cruz as “the best alternative to Donald Trump.”
So much opposition could leave Trump with a limited group of candidates who fit the vice presidential requirements of being experienced enough to be his VP and willing to be his VP.
Thus, Trump’s penchant for provocation may not just drive away voters, but would-be VPs as well. Vice presidential nominees become extensions of their presidential nominees, and therefore are associated with all their positions, Goldstein said. Given the unpredictability of Trump’s views, that association may be undesirable.
“People may have some concern about being the first responder on everything he says,” Goldstein said. “He insults somebody, and you walk off an airplane to a reporter saying what do you think about what Trump just said?”
Ultimately, though, Diaz Rosillo sees Trump’s minute selection pool undergoing expansion, should he secure the nomination.
“Right now, we’re in the middle of a very heated battle for the Republican nomination,” Diaz Rosillo said. “Once he’s the nominee, I think a lot of the people who are opposing him, even pretty viciously, would accept an offer to be his running mate.”
Unimportant Does Not Mean Uninteresting
Castro or Perez, Kasich or Christie—will any of it really matter in regards to the ultimate question of Clinton or Sanders or Trump or Cruz? Not tremendously, Diaz Rosillo says.
“Research has shown that voters don’t care much who the running mate is,” Diaz Rosillo said. “They look at the top of the ticket. In a close election, the choice of running mate can really help a candidate if the selection is wise. But for the most part, the selection of a running mate is a lot less consequential to people’s vote choice than people would assume.”
The uncertainty of that central presidential question stems in part from the unusual nature of many of the characters involved, which presents the potential for them to bring on unusual cast mates. Perhaps the 2016 vice presidential race will be the better analog to reality TV: providing little relevance to reality, but lots of entertainment.
Image credit: Gage Skidmore/Wikimedia Commons