Paradoxically, the more seats the Democrats lose in the House, the more likely it is to shift the agenda to the left. The current number of Democrats representing conservative districts empowers the Blue Dog Caucus, which has a moderating influence on bills passed through the House. If the ranks of the House Democrats are thinned, losses would come disproportionately from the Blue Dogs. The Democrats would still retain power, and the Republicans would still have none. Despite a shift rightward in House composition the House Democrats’ composition would shift left, and there would be fewer actors with the inclination or ability to hamper the aim of the President.
I’m wondering to what degree the White House is thinking about that. Mild losses in the House and any gain in the Senate in 2010 would represent a major tactical advantage for Obama’s agenda going forward.