In his landmark book, The Clash Of Civilizations and the Remaking of the World Order, Samuel Huntington made the following prediction:
East Asia could develop any one of several patterns of international relations in the twenty-first century. A major power, multipolar international system could take shape with China, Japan, the United States, Russia and possibly India balancing and competing with each other. Alternatively, East Asian politics could be dominated by a sustained bipolar rivalry between China and Japan or between China and the United States… Or conceivably East Asian politics could return to its traditional unipolar pattern with a hierarchy of power centered on Beijing. If China sustains its high levels of economic growth into the twenty-first century, maintains its unity in the post-Deng era, and is not hamstrung by succession struggles, it is likely to attempt to realize the last of these outcomes.
Fast forward to today’s world, and Huntington’s words look pretty prescient. China has claimed Japan’s crown as the second largest economy in the world, and daily signs point its ascension as as a hegemonic power, with Japan hardly in the picture.
In last week’s diplomatic stand-off between the two countries over the arrest of a Chinese fisherman, China emerged the victor, arm-twisting Japan into the fisherman’s release by halting its exports of rare earth, a vital component in Japan’s industries. Since then, Japan has struck back, expressing its disapproval of Chinese actions and demanding that China pay compensation for the damages, but these steps appear perfunctory, and the demands have gone unheeded. For Japan the damage has already been done, not so much to its two patrol boats, but to its national image.
Japan’s economic decline has been well-documented. But with last week’s events in mind, one begins to suspect a much larger force at work. Japan’s paralysis no longer appears to merely be in its economy, or at its polling booths, but in the country’s sense of ambition. In Japan Surrenders, the Atlantic’s James Fallows writes a fascinating account about how returning to his old neighborhood in Japan, he finds an “inward-looking country that has lost its ambition.” The mood in Japan today seems to be characterized by disillusionment and exhaustion – a striking contrast to the 1980’s, when it was regarded as the zenith of Asian modernization, and certainly a contrast to the China of today. Somewhere in the its meta-narrative, Japan seems to have lost the plot, unable to re-imagine its place in the 21st Century.
Based on this trajectory, all bets are for Huntington’s third prediction to come true. East Asia in the 21st century will be defined by a hegemonic China, and unless it finds a novel way to reinvigorate itself, Japan will be forced to live in its shadow.
Photo Credit: The National Archives UK