This week there have been many reports about the change in the troop withdrawal date. The New York Times reported that the Obama administration is changing its policy to include a withdrawal period at the end of 2014. This month, senior White House officials have cited 2014 as the new transfer date. Such an announcement makes the initial policy look like a strategic move to throw the Taliban off balance. The article quotes an administration official who claims that he wants to get the 2011 obsession out of people’s heads. Whether or not the new date is final is still unknown, but the push for a latter date indicates a win for military advisors. Patreus and Gates have been rejecting the 2011 date since its proposal and the plan has reportedly led to infighting within the administration. The major goal of setting such an early date was to increase urgency and to silence those who wanted an expedient end to the war. The new plan is not a departure from such urgency, in that withdrawals are expected to begin in 2011, but U.S. presence in the area will continue until 2014.
What the change indicates is a policy that was drafted with very little knowledge of the situation on the ground. Because Petraeus and Gates could not give President Obama a suitable timeline, the 2011 expectation was included in the plan. Anyone who followed the war realized that such a date was unrealistic. Therefore, the major goal of Obama’s proposal was not to set an actual date of withdrawal, it was to silence democrats who were cackling over war policy. The date was surrounded by incredible optimism not only from the public but from troops on the ground who saw their long journeys coming to an end. Judging from the Times’ report, the date was less war policy and more public relations strategy on the part of the President. However, there has to be some fallout from drastically switching dates and expectations.
Its hard to argue against pushing the date. There is the obvious downside of prolonging troop exposure to dangerous firefights, but the situation seems to be improving as Afghan security forces strive to increase their numbers. The major problem with the 2011 date was that the Afghan army wouldn’t have the numbers to take over the country. In 2014 they still wont have the troops, but the goal of 350,00 soldiers will provide extra insurance. There also must be a point where intense fighting slows and rebuilding begins. The 4 year time line seems to provide this necessary time as well as an appropriate sense of urgency. Finally, we have policy that indicates military leadership and the White House are actually communicating. Now we just have to wait until they change the date again.