2010 has been a banner year for WikiLeaks. Although the organization was relatively well known before this year for its leaks regarding police killings in Kenya, WikiLeaks took center stage in the international spotlight with its release of 92,000 Afghan war documents, 400,000 documents on the Iraqi war, and the recent release of
250,000 documents pertaining to the U.S. state department. The rising profile of the organization has lead to the creation of a veritable firestorm of criticism and debate. Questions about the ethics and wisdom of releasing such sensitive, classified information have taken center stage in international debate; however, the more important issues are the questions raised by the leaks of the nature of U.S. diplomacy in the post-WikiLeaks world. What will happen to U.S. diplomatic relations in light of this leak? How can the U.S. respond to this breach in diplomatic relations?
These are immediate and pressing questions whose answers remain unclear.
One diplomatic arena in which the document dump has notable implications is the relationship between China and the U.S. While the U.S. can most likely smooth over most diplomatic awkwardness that will likely result from WikiLeaks’s actions, it will be much harder to control the ramifications of a political fallout with the world’s second largest economy, especially while important issues such as currency policy, U.S. interests in Asia, North Korea, and trade are being discussed. From an initial analysis of the diplomatic documents released, two main points of contention between the U.S. and China are immediately apparent: the existence of Chinese cyberwarfare and as China’s relation with North Korea. While the former is definitely an issue of some concern, the later is currently more politically relevant due to North Korea’s recent aggressive actions.
The documents themselves pertain to the U.S. working with South Korea in order to draw up plans for a reunified Korean peninsula. Because a possible reunification of the Koreas would be unlikely without Chinese backing due to China’s ability to indefinitely prop up and keep the oppressive North Korean regime alive, any plan involving the Korean peninsula must address Chinese involvement. The diplomats hinge the success of their plan on the ability of the U.S. and South Korea to persuade China with economic incentives. Although it is not very surprising, and even encouraging, that the U.S. would have a plan for Korean reunification, it is relatively surprising that diplomats believe that the Chinese government can be mollified with economic incentives alone. This belief that China would accept a unified Korea amicably disposed towards America seems dangerously out of touch. China would not accept a unified Korea not only from the political perspective that such a country would likely pose a significant economic and political threat to China but also because the government would not appreciate a greater U.S. presence in the Asian arena. It is much more politically desirable for China to not only have the state of North Korea serve as a physical buffer but also for the state to deflect considerable international attention away from its own political actions. An increase in U.S. influence in the region would also be highly undesirable due to the still unresolved issue of Taiwan as well as the increasingly bitter rhetoric between China and the U.S. as China begins to come into its role as an international superpower. The release of these discourses will most likely further destabilize the Korean situation ahead of the proposed new round of six party talks. In light of this, the U.S. should pursue a different strategy of intimately including China in any discussion involving the Korean peninsula, and it is only with this trust that an easing of tensions in the Korean peninsula can take place. A cooperative spirit as well as a broader inclusion of China in matters that affect its boundaries would help foster a favorable diplomatic relationship that will likely define a large part of international politics and society in the 21st century.
While it is hard to say exactly how the U.S. should proceed diplomatically from this point, one thing is certain; the most interesting aspect of the recent Wikileaks release is not something that lends itself to some Hollywood movie or internet conspiracy. The documents did not reveal the existence of area 51 or a conspiracy surrounding President Kennedy’s assassination. Instead, the documents allow the public a unique glance into the nature of American soft power and the nature of our diplomatic relationship with not only political enemies but also our closest allies.
photo credit: http://libertypundits.net/article/wikileaks-under-cyber-attack-american-diplomacy-laid-bare-who-gains-with-this-revelation/