America’s policies towards Cuba have been total, unmitigated failures, so it’s really good to see Obama making some important, initial changes. The entire premise of our embargo — that isolation will weaken the regime, which in turn will trigger an overthrow — is based on a major fallacy. In reality, isolation strengthens authoritarian regimes. It shields them from international forces of democratization, while weakening the position of their opposition. Our policies towards Cuba have been successful only at making the Cuban people poorer, less exposed to international development and less connected to NGOs, businesses and governments around the world that have interests in free, open societies.
My Gov. 20 professor Steven Levitsky wrote a paper (pdf) on this subject, in which he argued that the strenght of authoritarian regimes after the Cold War was negatively correlated with how “linked” their countries were socially, economically and politically to the United States or Europe. Integrated countries in Latin America and Central Europe, for example, have democratized, while isolated countries in the former Soviet Union, the Middle East and East Asian have remained more authoritain.
And extremely isolated countries like Cuba and North Korea haven’t budged an inch.
The fact that Obama has emphasized easing travel restrictions and allowing telecommunication contracts into Cuba is important. These are the stuff of integration. And that — I think — should be the general thrust of America’s foreign policy, not just with Cuba but generally.