Long-shot presidential candidates face numerous hurdles when it comes to mounting a credible campaign for their party’s nomination. Considering the name-brand advantage enjoyed by some of candidates for next year’s Republican primaries, and the fact that none of the big names have announced their 2012 plans, making the decision to jump into the race is particularly difficult for politicians new to the national scene. In essence, they have three options when it comes to declaring when to run: early 2011, mid-2011, and late 2011. But all three times pose serious problems for long-shot contenders:
Early 2011: There are many advantages to starting an early campaign. A candidate that declares early has plenty of time to fundraise, get his name out in the crowd, raise awareness of his views on the issues, establish credibility as a contender, get dedicated media coverage, and get a strong ground game running. But, if it were such a good idea, why aren’t more presidential aspirants considering it? For starters, as Chris Cillizza of The Washington Post notes, the person who starts first is often forgotten. When someone like Governor Palin (R-AK) or Governor Romney (R-MA) enters the race, if they choose to do so, they might instantly deflate other candidates’ momentum. Whatever waves someone like Senator Thune (R-SD) might make with an early announcement (he’s planning to let everyone know by the end of February), are likely to vanish by the time a politician with significant name recognition enters the race. Also, even an apparent frontrunner can easily fade from significance over the course of a year (just ask “President Giuliani”, who actually made his first steps toward a run clear in late 2006). Furthermore, not raising enough money in order to gain a strategic advantage may prove highly discouraging for would-be nominees. A long-shot candidate who jumps in early would need to get a significant head start in donations and endorsements before a more recognizable candidate (and more effective fundraiser) enters the race. If a long-shot candidate doesn’t see the numbers materialize, they might drop out. Money is essential for candidates who need to get their name out in the news.
Mid-2011: This sounds like a good compromise between a last-minute entrance and an early one. However, there’s a reason it is problematic for newcomers: it seems like the time when frontrunners will jump in. Gov. Romney has stated that, if he runs, he will start later than last time. Even Gov. Palin and Gov. Huckabee (R-AR) have not made any clear plans yet (though it looks like Speaker Gingrich (R-GA) will let us know by the end of this month as well). Mid-2011 looks like it makes the most sense for them, giving them time to establish their credentials, participate in debates, and fundraise. It’s neither too early nor too late. The problem, naturally, is that they will easily dominate media coverage. If Rep. Allen West (R-FL) enters around then, for example, in a bid to become America’s second African American president, he might not get the news coverage he wants. Gov. Palin’s run would be more historic, as a woman has not yet won a major-party nomination and the current president has already broken the race barrier. Furthermore, she drives media ratings (unlike other possible women candidates like Rep. Bachmann (R-MN), about whom I’ve written before) and has a large segment of the electorate behind her. West, or another candidate with little name-recognition such as Sen. Santorum, would not be able to compete.
Late 2011: Remember Senator Fred Thompson’s impressive performance in the three debates with Senator Obama, his surprise VP pick, the close race, and his ultimate graceful concession? Of course not. It never happened. Sen. Thompson (R-TN) made waves when he first announced his long-awaited run for the presidency in late 2007. But what went wrong? Sen. Thompson did not have the time to establish the infrastructure necessary to mount a credible run in Iowa and New Hampshire, and his last-chance bid in South Carolina was completely sidelined by the extremely competitive race between Senator McCain (R-AZ) and Governor Huckabee. Thompson placed a rather unimpressive third, and bowed out. (It was actually pretty similar to Giuliani’s overshadowed Florida performance, in which Romney and McCain took the spotlight). In 2012, if a candidate – even an “unconventional” candidate such as Gov. Palin, but especially a national newcomer such as Gov. Mitch Daniels (R-IN) – chooses to enter the race in late 2011, he or she will find it extremely hard to get off the ground in time for the Iowa caucus, no matter how many tweets or Facebook events he or she uses to mobilize the state.
Overall, it looks unlikely that long-shot candidates will be able to wrest the nomination from any of the four frontrunners (Gov. Palin, Speaker Gingrich, Gov. Huckabee, and Gov. Romney). But, nevertheless, if they choose to run, they will have to analyze the costs and benefits of each prospective announcement time and make an educated decision. It may be that one time suits them perfectly – and in 2013, we may be calling them “Mr. President.”
Photo credit: John Thune’s Official Senate website.