Yesterday, The New York Times reported that Obama is considering removing the condition that Iran cease its nuclear enrichment before the U.S. negotiates with Iran on nuclear matters. By any standard, this would be a monumental policy shift from the Bush Administration, which demanded Iran cease enrichment as a precondition to negotiation. It’s also, potentially, a very risky move, but one that seems to make more sense in the long run than the policies the U.S. has pursued to this point.
First, it is likely that Ahmedinejad will face a tough election in June. Mir-Hossein Mousavi, his opponent, is a reformer whose policies could include strengthening ties with the U.S. to free Iran from the diplomatic and political isolation Iran has faced in recent decades. If Obama makes welcoming overtures to Iran and Ahmedinejad still refuses to negotiate, uranium enrichment may become a major campaign issue. The U.S. stands to benefit from a political dialogue in Iran about what role its nuclear program should play in the context of its suffering economy and increasingly poor population.
Second, European diplomats can be expected to back Obama’s decision. This would have the dual effect of buttressing American standing abroad and placing European leaders in a position to cooperate with the U.S. in negotiating Iran away from its nuclear weapons program. With the combined force of the U.S. and Europe having made demonstrable concessions to Iran to build trust, Iran will face significant political pressure to make concessions as well. Given the regional balance of power in the Middle East, Iran cannot afford to politically isolate itself.
One significant drawback to Obama’s proposed policy is that it will drive a wedge between the U.S. and Israel. To be sure, this would be a much more significant challenge for Israel to surmount — Israeli leadership has already stated quite clearly that they will not stand idly by while Iran develops the capacity to make nuclear weapons. I can envision a scenario down the line in which America will be forced to choose between supporting the intelligence — and, conceivably, military — incursions of Israel into Iran and continuing to pursue diplomatic options with Iran — aided by our European allies — that may or may not progress to our liking.
In the short run, though, even the announcement that Obama is considering such a policy will help overcome the tense U.S.-Iran relations left in the wake of the Bush years. This is just one more indicator of how much more attuned to geopolitical realities Obama is than his predecessor was.