Every time I read a strategy memo for the next Republican party, I panic a little. It’s a sudden fear – oh no, what if they figure it out this time? – that quickly subsides, because usually the argument is poor enough that the party to which I happen to be illogically loyal has little to fear. But when intelligent people like Chris offer visions like this one, which might begin show the way, I start to worry.
Here’s my two cents: if you just study the demographics, they are not the old GOP’s friend. The youth population is not only solidly and increasingly progressive in ideology, it is also growing in number and as a proportion of the vote. The only other group of comparable importance in this new calculus is Latinos, and despite President Bush’s best efforts while pushing through immigration reform, he has definitively lost them to the Democratic Party.
But let’s assume that not much else changes — assume that suburban whites remain moderates (usually Republican, sometimes Democratic in times of economic crisis); assume that African-Americans remain solidly Democratic (if not always progressive) in light of Obama’s presidency and their historical patterns; assume that with given economic stratification and the general line of Republican political thought, the most impoverished Americans will vote Democratic (all other things — especially education — held equal).
We leave one major category up for capture, which Chris mentions: educated college graduates (graduate students aren’t going GOP anytime soon, sorry). This is a group that currently votes leaning Democratic, and yet it probably could and should switch over if the GOP plays its cards right. After the jump, my take on why my own demographic is particularly susceptible.
College graduates are, by definition, upwardly mobile. They have the possibility of attaining higher salaries and tend to envision themselves as closely tied to the American Dream. And, most of all, our generation is more likely to have a longer time horizon to worry about – we plan to be alive in 50 years, so all those things currently being put off are our problem. That gives Republicans an advantage if they become the “party of responsible government” in its truest sense: smaller national debt, restrained consumption levels, smaller military, necessary intervention to keep the markets running along proper competitive principles, sustainable welfare and Social Security payouts, and – yes – climate change legislation.
But there are caveats: Young people, and educated young people especially, have no patience for those who remain intentionally ignorant of science. They are liable to suffer no fools who promote bigotry and intolerance. They are not religious, nor are they particularly xenophobic. These are the stereotypes of the Republican party — all of them promulgated, if not justified, by the GOP’s political and policy choices in the past. Here’s the essential point: not all young people, but some, could be swayed into GOP ranks from the mass of the apathetic (especially at Harvard) by a compelling narrative of our generation’s long-term interests.
I’ve been thinking about this issue from the other side: how does the Democratic party keep its young voters? Must they soon throw off the unions? Must they eventually rethink policies on issues like ethanol? Do young voters demand internationalism and humanitarian intervention, or pragmatic isolation? These are important questions: this is, after all, a generation that will be around for quite a while.
Edit: Alex pointed out one of the casualties of last-minute editing: in the interest of concisness, I failed to clarify that graduates of professional “graduate” schools (medicine, business, law) are not included in my category of “graduate students” (academia, traditionally conceived). Professionals are also one of the embattled swing voter categories who easily split between the left and right. They tend to have anti-populist tendencies, which makes them socially liberal but economically ambiguous, and so I’m not sure whether this is a group that is likely to become more liberal or conservative in the future. Any conservatives out there — hint, hint — I’d love to hear your thoughts.