Two weeks ago, Obama made a comment to House Republicans that they “can’t just listen to Rush Limbaugh and get things done”. This was treated as the failure of bipartisanship*, and was perceived as an impolitic thing for him to say. Hypothesis: Obama messed up.
Datum: Rush Limbaugh is incredibly unpopular. This story provoked a spate of Republicans rushing (I’m sorry, I didn’t intend that one) to defend Rush, from Boehner to John McCain. Not only that, all of a sudden Rush is everywhere in the media. Obama’s seemingly offhand comment dramatically raised Rush’s profile, and marked him as the single most powerful figure in the Republican Party. The spectacle of a Republican Congressman pathetically groveling after he displeased Rush must have been greeted with glee in Rahm Emanuel’s office. While it’s not quite as beneficial as the public face of the Republican Party being George W. Bush, it’s almost as good. And public scrutiny will not be good for Rush, who has a tendency to say horribly offensive things on an hourly basis. His choices are to protect his public image through moderation (unlikely) or to continue to harm his party’s image by consolidating his power over it.
Alternative Hypothesis: Barack Obama is a political genius of the highest order. He smiles a lot and doesn’t make loud noises or sudden movements, which is why the Republicans don’t realize they’re getting played like MarioKart. While perhaps overoptimistic, this hypothesis also explains how a forty-seven year old black intellectual from Chicago with the middle name “Hussein” got to be President, which is certainly outside the norm of American politics. I’d posit that it has great explanatory power, and while not falsifiable before 2010, I predict much supporting evidence to be gathered by that point.
*: Democrats and Republicans are supposed to have vast ideological differences. If they’re at all intellectually honest, shouldn’t they be disagreeing all the time? I think “bipartisan” will turn out to be Obama’s “compassionate conservatism”: meaningless campaign fluff.