Why President Lukashenko’s cooperation in Belarus could be more deadly than his refusal.
With smoke and whispers of a domino-effect rising in the Middle East, it is difficult to tear attention away from Twitter updates from Egypt and Tunisia to focus on a quieter, as of yet unsuccessful, opposition movement. Indeed, a no less spectacular story is unfolding in the European Union’s backyard.
Political oppression and human rights abuses in Belarus closely resemble those found in the authoritarian regimes in the Middle East. However, despite a larger bankroll and sustained international support, opposition to government in Belarus remains anemic in comparison to the robust and successful popular movements elsewhere.
The Man
President Alexander Lukashenko has been unapologetically wielding power in Belarus since 1994. He is somewhat humorously referred to as “Europe’s Last Dictator,” and is seen as pesky yet immovable. Lukashenko won the
December 19, 2010 presidential election easily, garnering a convincing 79.65% of the vote, according to the Central Election Committee. To others, it seems, these results were less convincing. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) and other independent election-monitoring organizations raised their voices following the election, categorizing the event as “flawed.”
Finished with the unpleasant task of playing “election” for the benefit of international observers, Lukashenko and company returned to the business of running the country. More worrying than large scale vote-rigging was the brutal crackdown on opposition activity immediately following the election.
On the evening of December 19th, election day, an estimated 10,000 Belarusians assembled in the square in front of the main government building in Minsk. What began as a peaceful demonstration quickly turned ugly when a few protesters tried to smash the windows of a government office and storm the building. Immediately, anti-riot police flooded the square and violently dispersed the demonstration. Within 24 hours, five of seven opposing presidential candidates had been arrested. The Belarusian KGB demanded phone records from mobile carriers showing the identities of those called from the demonstration square that night and followed up. Though relatively few of the protesters were engaged in the attempted storming, over 600 were sentenced to jail time for organizing, inciting and participating in mass disturbance.
The international community responded, digging deep for pocket change and declaring support for the opposition movement in Belarus. Over 36 states and other institutions pledged a combined $120 million in aid to the opposition
movement, non-governmental organizations and independent media in the country. The United States and the European Union announced a new barrage of sanctions, including a travel ban and asset freeze for top officials. John McCain and Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski declared solidarity with members of the opposition and those still jailed following Lukashenko’s crackdown. Sikorski also warned Lukashenko that he risks being overthrown by his own people.
Bandwagon
Why did a bit of standard dictatorial brutality evoke such a powerful response from the international community? Belarus shares borders with European Union and NATO countries. Geopolitically speaking, human rights abuses in the backyard demand action. Europe and the United States have banded together to pressure Lukashenko’s exit.
What remains to be seen is whether this increase in aid and diplomatic support will have the desired effect. Lukashenko’s tight grip on power has weakened perennial opposition movements. Organizing is difficult, largely confined to “kitchen table gatherings” and the occasional spontaneous demonstration as seen on December 19th. Cash will help fund opposition activities, but will do little to stir a frightened population into a popular revolutionary movement.
Allow the Iron Fist?
Across the world, human rights activists and political scientists alike are wringing their hands, fretting over the possibility of non-compliance. More worrying, in my opinion, is the possibility of slight success. Lukashenko’s tightly clenched fist may be his undoing. Russia hems and haws on the sideline, criticized for human rights abuses of their own, and annoyed with an increasingly uncooperative Lukashenko. A demonstration of 10,000 Belarusians protesting the election provides strong evidence of his unpopularity. Stories of the beatings and arrests of those who seek to change the status quo will anger the Belarusian people – in short, Lukashenko’s behavior is creating a revolutionary movement.
At this point, the most dangerous thing for the future of human rights and democracy in Belarus would be small concessions on the part of Lukashenko. Nothing substantive, but enough to somewhat placate the people and international organizations calling for his removal. He may free a few prisoners. He may allow ‘limited’ opposition organization. If the world accepts these efforts as legitimate, $120 million will not be enough. A revolution will be stillborn.
Caitria O’Neill is a Staff Writer for the Harvard Political Review.
Photo Credit: The CNN Wire; WorldNews.