Following the New York Primary, which resulted in substantial victories for the frontrunners in both parties, it appears more likely than ever that the general election in November will be a contest between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. These two candidates are among the most widely disliked of any major presidential candidates in American history. However, the dislike for the two frontrunners seems to stem from different sources. Hillary Clinton is widely seen as both intelligent and qualified, but is considered unexciting and unsatisfying as a candidate, particularly to young voters. Trump, on the other hand, is an especially polarizing figure whose public statements and brash personality lead to a “love him or hate him” dichotomy in which both his supporters and his detractors are particularly enthusiastic.
Taking these elements into account leads us to a certain number of assumptions regarding the support for both candidates among young voters. Given the dominance of Bernie Sanders among Millennials, one would expect support for Hillary Clinton to be lukewarm at best. Youth support for Sanders and his “political revolution” suggests a deep dissatisfaction with the Republican Party and a skepticism of Hillary Clinton’s brand of progressive politics. It seems reasonable to assume that support for Trump among young voters would be minimal, and support for Clinton as a hypothetical nominee would be unenthusiastic.
Recent polling data collected by the Harvard Public Opinion Project of individuals age 18 to 29, however, turns these assumptions on their heads. Clinton has a large lead in a matchup between herself and Trump, with 52 percent supporting Clinton, 22 percent supporting Trump, and a combined 26 percent saying they did not know or declining to answer. Most interestingly, however, 60 percent of those supporting Clinton were “very enthusiastic” or “somewhat enthusiastic” in their support for her, with the remaining 40 percent being “not very enthusiastic” or “not at all enthusiastic.” Among Trump supporters, however, only 51 percent were “very enthusiastic” or “somewhat enthusiastic,” while the other 49 percent were “not very enthusiastic” or “not at all enthusiastic.”
This could spell trouble for Trump if this hypothetical matchup comes to pass. Young voters tend to favor progressive policies and will therefore likely trend Democrat, but Trump so far has been able to count on the enthusiasm of his supporters. Clinton is widely seen by young voters as a status-quo candidate who offers nothing new. Trump, on the other hand, is believed to have brought a much-needed energy to his party, regardless of how one views his policies. It remains to be seen how Trump will fare if his brash rhetoric does not translate into the energetic and enthusiastic support he has come to expect.