Citizen apathy in the United States has reached levels that are symptomatic of a disillusioned populace, if not systemic failure. In the 2012 presidential elections, only 57.5 percent of eligible voters came out to vote. In a new survey by the Harvard Public Opinion Project, that disillusionment has only grown, with only 40 percent of millennials polled expecting to participate in the 2014 midterm elections. While midterm elections are not known for having high participation, the rate appears to be dropping in the key 18-29 year old demographic: in its 2010 survey, HPOP found 47 percent of young adults “likely to vote” in the 2010 midterm elections.
The 2014 elections are particularly important in terms of the division of power within Congress. The Republican Party has the opportunity to control both houses of Congress for the first time since 2006, while the Democrats have a strong bid to knock off Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). Despite the stakes, which should be sufficient to drive interest in the election, young people’s perception of both parties and their performance in Congress is grim.
The Democratic Party’s favorable/unfavorable ratings are not impressive, but its approval ratings are above that of its opposition. The Republican Party’s unfavorable ratings are, in HPOP’s findings, at record levels, reaching 74 percent unfavorable, while disapproval of Democrats sits at 61 percent. It remains to be seen whether Republicans have repaired enough of the damage to their brand since suffering defeat in 2012.
Most surprisingly of all, the factor that Republicans consider crucial to their victory in the upcoming elections—President Obama’s approval ratings—does not seem to impact the probability that young voters will mobilize. The HPOP poll found that 41 percent of those who approve of the president’s time in office plan to vote in November, while 40 percent of those who disapprove do.
The slight drop in youth turnout in 2012 and lack of interest in 2014 may constitute only a short-term setback in the upward trend that started with the 2000 election. On the other hand, it may herald a return to the slide in participation that began in 1964. In either case, the inability of political parties to excite interest from more than forty percent of the populace is troubling.
The idea of an indifferent citizenry is particularly troubling in light of a recent Princeton study that labels the United States an oligarchy. While the uneven distribution of money in elections is a critical variable in the Princeton study, it is a disillusioned electorate that paves the way for oligarchical rule, in which the preferences of elites are weighed disproportionally over those of ordinary citizens. Perhaps thanks to an alarmingly polarized Congress or to an acidic national discourse, millennials are not as likely to turn out to vote.