In March, Donald Trump let loose one of the more memorable lines of the election season: “If they’re small, something else must be small. I guarantee you there’s no problem.” But while Trump may have cleared up confusion about his hand length, recent data collected by the Harvard Public Opinion Project’s Spring 2016 Poll shows that he should be concerned about a different, critical question of size: is his support from American youth large enough?
Trump’s blustering pronouncements may be cutting into his presidential viability among an increasingly young and diverse audience. Few young Americans, ages 18-29, have a positive opinion of the current Republican frontrunner—just 17 percent think of Trump as favorable, in contrast to the 74 percent who do not find him appealing as a candidate. That statistic rises to a mediocre 37 percent when counting only Republicans and falls to 16 percent for Independents. Given his statements, which are often criticized as belligerent and xenophobic, disapproval is particularly prominent among racial minorities. Fewer than 10 percent of young black or Hispanic Americans find Trump favorable. Young women, seemingly swayed by comments many have derided as misogynist, also collectively disapprove of Trump, with only 12 percent finding him favorable. As primary results eventually fill in the national map to the West and Midwest, where Trump fields just 12 percent and 15 percent favorability ratings, respectively, his weakness with young Americans threatens to drag him down from reaching the necessary 1,237 delegate count that would secure his nomination as the GOP candidate.
Instead, Millennials prefer Cruz to represent the Republican party—or at least they dislike him less. While Cruz’s favorability ratings among all young Americans are not much higher than Trump’s (at 23 percent, with a modest six-point margin), he is significantly more favorable among young Republicans. In fact, 56 percent of these respondents have a positive opinion of Cruz as a candidate. And this support continues in the Hispanic community: nearly a quarter of young Hispanics (including Democrats) approve of Cruz, three times as many as Trump. Cruz’s disapproval ratings (52 percent for all respondents and just 30 percent for Republicans sampled in the survey) are significantly lower than Trump’s, which signals the senator’s victory in the general election as a more feasible option. This comparative strength is a reward for Cruz, who has attempted for several months to specifically court Millennials to supplement his religious and far-right base.
With a convincing success in New York last week, Trump may win the Republican primary regardless of the preferences of young Americans. Yet his lack of support among the GOP’s future voters should be yet another wake-up call for the already frantic political party. Should the convention be contested, Republican leaders must pay attention to Millennials when selecting a candidate—Cruz or otherwise—lest Millennials drift even further away. As Cruz remarked in February after the Iowa primary, “We won Millennials … That’s what it’s going to take to win the general election.” But whether the voices of young Americans are audible enough to stop Trump remains to be seen.