In November’s upcoming midterm election, there doesn’t appear to be any single issue dominating voter’s attention. The economy has recovered somewhat and isn’t as pressing an issue to voters as it was in 2010, and foreign policy, though a focal point with the rise of ISIS and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, isn’t nearly as divisive as in 2006. In this political setting, healthcare is once again on the forefront of voters’ minds, young and old alike, as they go to the polls. This year will be the second midterm election in a row in which healthcare is a prominent issue, over four years after the Affordable Care Act was signed into law.
According to the ad-tracking firm CMAG, both Republican and Democratic candidates have aired more ads about healthcare than any other issue in this election season. Republicans are running ads referring to the healthcare.gov rollout flop and the possibility of repealing Obamacare while Democrats are confident in the polling that shows the majority of Americans are in favor of either keeping the law in its entirety or making modifications to the structure already in place.
The issue of healthcare is potentially more significant in toss-up elections than in elections nationwide. In Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, and Louisiana healthcare is the subject of the most political ads. For example, in Arkansas, Democratic Senator Mark Pryor has been attacked by challenger Tom Cotton for his vote on healthcare reform in 2010. Cotton’s campaign has released six ads already on the topic. In Louisiana, Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu is facing a similar attack from challenger Bill Cassidy in another critical senate election.
While healthcare has emerged as a critical issue in the midterms, the issue is no less important for young voters. The Affordable Care Act affected many Americans, young voters especially. The uninsured rate of 18-34 year-olds dropped from 28 to 18% according to the Commonwealth Fund, a drop at least partially due to the popular change allowing young people to stay on a parent’s health insurance policy until the age of 26. Typically most associated with elderly voters, the healthcare issue is particularly salient to young voters this cycle.
The interest of young Americans in the healthcare issue is demonstrated by the poll: 39.2% of young voters polled in the Harvard Public Opinion Project said healthcare was “very important” in deciding who to vote for, a proportion greater than any other issue. This figure is especially high compared with only 29.6% who said immigration is “very important,” and 24.2% who said foreign policy is “very important.”
In total, 76.1% of young voters said the healthcare issue was “very important” or “somewhat important” in deciding whom to vote for in the upcoming election. Only 64.7% responded the same way on immigration, and 51.4% on race relations even after a summer of protests, riots, and national attention on Ferguson, MO.
On the issue of healthcare, young voters seem to trust democrats by a margin of 32.7% to 25.2%, while the rest are unsure. It is interesting to note that young voters trust Democrats about as much as the rest of the American public when it comes to healthcare policy. Among all Americans, Democrats have a slim advantage of 36% to 32% on healthcare among respondents.
This Democratic margin on healthcare among young voters should be seen as a positive sign for Democratic candidates, who are still seen as leading on the issue even after the late 2013 healthcare.gov botched rollout. Since then, healthcare reform has made up some ground in public opinion due to positive press for the Medicaid state expansion.