The Republican Party is losing the battle for the millennial vote. With the number of young Americans continually growing—and having exceeded that of the Baby Boomer generation in 2015—Millennials are gaining political power. Fueled by the misconception that young Americans will automatically align themselves with the Democratic Party as soon as they reach voting age, Republicans have largely ignored this influential voting bloc. Whereas polls from previous years have shown that young people didn’t strongly identify with either political party, new data from the Harvard Public Opinion Project proves that this trend is changing. As politics have grown increasingly polarized and Republicans have failed to reach out to Millennials, young voters have no choice but to vote Democrat.
For the first time in five years, the number of Millennials that identify as Democrats has exceeded the number that identify as Independents. This is not necessarily due the successes of the Democratic Party. On the contrary, Millennials gave Congressional Democrats a mere 44 percent approval rating. The dismal 21 percent approval rating for Congressional Republicans provides greater context. Since October 2014, the gap between the approval ratings of Republicans and Democrats in Congress has widened from a 12-point difference in October 2014 to a 23-point difference in March 2016. Frustrated by subpar presidential candidates—John Kasich, Ted Cruz, and Donald Trump all received larger unfavorable than favorable ratings—Millennials don’t believe that Republicans properly represent their interests. Given that in 2014, HPOP found that 51 percent of Millennials considered most likely to vote preferred a Republican Congress, the Republicans are losing young voters they could have mobilized over the past two years. Furthermore, with 72 percent of respondents reporting that the Supreme Court vacancy should be filled under President Obama’s administration, Senate Republicans’ refusal to confirm Merrick Garland is likely to be interpreted as obstructionist and representative of counterproductive partisan politics.
Furthermore, Republicans’ failure to put forth an appealing, moderate candidate during the primaries has led to strikingly negative approval ratings for those that are in the race. It also has created greater political disengagement among young voters. The only candidate in either party with higher favorable than unfavorable ratings is Bernie Sanders, who has gained attention for his youth appeal. Most notably, even among self-proclaimed Republican voters, Donald Trump has higher unfavorable than favorable ratings (57 to 37 percent). When asked whom they would support in the general election if Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump were the parties’ nominees, 61 percent of likely voters said they would support Clinton whereas only 25 percent would support Trump. However, Millennials don’t view either option as particularly appealing, with 40 percent of Clinton voters in the hypothetical matchup feeling “unenthusiastic” about their choice and 49 percent of Trump supporters unenthusiastic about their candidate.
There is significant evidence that the views of Millennials could coincide with the values of the GOP. For example, Millennials trust the U.S. military more than most other institutions. Fifty one percent of respondents trust the military to do the right thing “all or most of the time,” compared to only 23 percent who trust the federal government and 9 percent who trust the media to do the same. Only 26 percent of people believe government spending is an effective way to spur economic growth. However, if Republicans continue to isolate Millennials in favor of their Baby Boomer voting base, their popularity will continue to decrease. Particularly, if they have any hope of winning the presidency in November, the GOP must reach out to Millennials and engage them in the political conversation.