Bush, Evangelicals, and the Republican Party
By Ray Duer ‘11
Coming on the heels of President Clinton’s scandal-ridden second term, and campaigning in 2000 as a “compassionate conservative” with the promise of a return of moral fortitude to the Oval Office, George W. Bush won the heart of one of America’s most powerful voting blocs, Protestant Evangelicals. In 2004 family values topped the list of priorities for voters, a result of Evangelicals’ ability to get their supporters to the polling booths. Republicans’ relationship with Evangelicals has been crucial to the success of the GOP over the last ten years; in return, Evangelicals have wanted action on social issues, not least abortion and same-sex marriage. President Bush’s legacy shows a mixed record on issues important to Evangelicals, however, and recent polling shows a splintering of the Evangelicals between the two parties. While President Bush kept the Evangelicals in the Republican fold during his Presidency, the party’s prospects for holding them are not altogether promising in the long run.
The Good and the Bad
Despite the growing concern that Evangelicals are leaving the Republican Party, they consistently give President Bush an above 50 percent approval rating. Those same voters cite the successful nomination of conservative Supreme Court Justices John Roberts and Samuel Alito, opposition to stem cell research, legislation against partial-birth abortion, the promotion of international family planning, and the opposition, albeit unenthusiastic, to same-sex marriage legislation by states as solid returns on their investment. Beyond his social agenda, Evangelicals supported President Bush on other issues, including comprehensive immigration reform. Opposing the anti-immigration branch of the Republican Party led by Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-Colo.) many Evangelicals empathize with the migrant searching for a better life. David Gushee, professor at the McAfee School of Theology, contributing editor to Christianity Today, and author of The Future of Faith American Politics told the HPR, “by seeing the migrant as a human being, immigration is a compassion issue. Compassion and common good are becoming more and more important.”
Yet there have also been many disappointments for Evangelicals in President Bush’s two terms, from the oft-cited statistic that there have been roughly five million abortions since his taking office to his support for states’ abilities to offer civil unions. Even faith-based initiatives, once considered a resounding success, are now seen as a major disappointment because of their inability to follow through on early promises. David Kuo, former assistant to the head of the Office of Faith-Based Initiatives, wrote a book in 2006 arguing that the Bush administration used Evangelicals to get to the White House and acted on just enough issues to placate them. Kuo believes “national Christian leaders received hugs and smiles in person and then were dismissed behind their backs.” Prospects for a change in party affiliation are thus entirely conceivable.
The Future
While in 2004 President Bush received 78 percent of the white Evangelical vote, that number will almost certainly decline in future elections due to generational shifts towards the center left in that voting bloc; Republicans cannot hold Evangelicals exclusively through social issues like abortion and same-sex marriage. Richard Cizik of the National Association of Evangelicals has been promoting “creation care,” calling for better stewardship of the God-given environment, and Rick Warren, bestselling author of The Purpose Driven Life and pastor of the Saddleback Church, says he is more interested in ideas that “unite,” such as “poverty, HIV/AIDS, climate change, and human rights.” The resulting speculation about a major shift in party affiliation has been bolstered by Sen. Barack Obama’s (D-Ill.) appearance at Rick Warren’s Saddleback Church and the reticence of old Evangelical stalwarts to embrace Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.).
Nevertheless, the Democratic Party’s commitment to a pro-choice policy, more than its support for same sex marriage, is a serious and likely insurmountable obstacle for many young Evangelicals. As Gushee explained, “if you have a consistent ethic of life, you have tried to treat every human being with love and respect, which leads you to being uneasy with abortion, but against rejection of homosexuals.” The watershed of Evangelicals to the Democrats is thus not in the cards in the next election, but the changing and broadening of Evangelicals’ priorities will slowly loosen their ties to the Republican Party unless it can offer them more.