Before his election in 2008, Barack Obama promised the Latino community that he would produce a plan for comprehensive immigration reform within his first year. The fallout from a divisive health care debate and the stinging 2010 midterm elections effectively derailed any plans Obama may have had to engage with another controversial policy topic. Depending on who was asking, Obama’s failure to pass immigration reform may have been the “biggest disappointment” of his first term.
Yet in 2013, the political battlefield has shifted considerably. Republican Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, a young star for the conservative wing of the party, is the principal spokesman for a bipartisan Senate immigration reform group. Rep. Eric Cantor, the number-two Republican in the House, came out in favor of the DREAM Act in a speech at the right-leaning think tank American Enterprise Institute. Yet just several years ago, these policy positions would have earned the label “amnesty” from the party.
The Demographics of New America
Ambassador Karen Hughes, former counsel to the president and undersecretary of state for public diplomacy under President George W. Bush, argues that the 2012 election represented a sea change on immigration for conservatives. “The tone that we set was so unwelcoming that it hurt us not only with Hispanic voters, but with other voters who should be, by conservative philosophy, Republicans, like Asian-American voters,” Hughes told the HPR, noting that among the most surprising results of the 2012 election was a sharp drop in Asian-American support for the GOP. In her view, this seems to confirm the notion that even legal immigrants were turned off by an immigration approach based on the idea of “self-deportation.” Republicans began to wonder if “George Bush understood something [they] didn’t” when it came to immigration.
Latinos have become the largest minority group in the country, having surpassed the black population sometime in the last decade. Relative birth rates and legal immigration are only poised to increase their share of the American population over the next few decades, even if undocumented immigrants never achieve citizenship. In light of these new political realities, John Murray, former Deputy Chief of Staff to House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, expressed regret that the Republican Party has allowed itself to be painted as anti-immigrant. “I think, actually, many of the things that are at the core of the conservative belief system are aligned with these communities: the ability to come here and earn your own success, start a business, build a community,” he revealed in an interview with the HPR. He recognized that, given current population trends, GOP strongholds like Texas with strong immigrant communities could flip in the next decade or so. For Murray, the choice is clear: “present a compelling reason for them to support Republican candidates, or … turn them off with outdated ideas about immigration.”
An Emerging Alliance
For people like Rubio and Cantor, the choice is obvious; engaging honestly in a debate to reform immigration policy is the key to saving the Republican Party from demographic oblivion. The question, then, becomes whether or not Republicans will have a partner at the negotiating table.
Emilio Estefan, a Cuban-American music producer who, with his wife Gloria, has worked with presidents from both political parties on Latino issues, says the Hispanic community would respond positively. The political strength of the Hispanic community is orders of magnitude greater than it was when President Reagan attempted to reform immigration 30 years ago. Estefan believes that, after failing to deliver immigration reform in his first term, pressure from Latino groups forced Obama’s hand. If both sides are willing to cooperate, an agreement can be reached. But Estefan warns that it must be comprehensive. Issues like improving border security and work visas should be addressed now, before the moment escapes. A broken immigration system “is like a cancer,” Estefan explained. “You can’t just excise the latest problem, you must cure the source.”
A band-aid solution is exactly what the more recalcitrant Republicans fear will happen if immigration reform is taken up this year. People like Sen. Pete Sessions, who called Rubio’s support of the Senate immigration framework “naïve,” are worried that after millions of immigrants are given a path to citizenship, no preventative action will be taken to address future illegal immigration. Some of these members of Congress “represent districts where they feel overrun by the presence of many illegal immigrants, so they see pressure on their hospitals and schools,” notes Ambassador Hughes. Many of the skeptics, especially those from border states, doubt that the new laws will be adequately enforced. For them, border security is an a priori issue. And given concerns about drug and human trafficking, these fears are not wholly unfounded.
A Conservative Cause
The question of immigration reform extends beyond illegal immigration from Mexico, of course. Murray recounted a trip he and Rep. Cantor had taken to Silicon Valley, where technology entrepreneurs appeared eager for skilled labor. The executives they spoke with discussed the economic benefits of allowing foreigners trained in American institutions to remain in this country, citing the multiplier effect skilled workers had on the company’s ability to hire more Americans.
Reforms addressing these business needs, as well as proposals like guest-worker visas, are well within the mainstream of conservative economic thought. Even former presidential nominee Mitt Romney, who was lambasted for his harsh position on illegal immigration, was in favor of a system granting qualified foreign graduates of American universities permanent residency in order to foster economic growth. Entering the policy debate on immigration would allow Republicans the opportunity to put forward innovative proposals like this that would both further business growth and help rehabilitate the party’s “anti-immigrant” public image.
Despite the hesitance of a few holdouts, momentum seems to be building behind some action on immigration reform in the 113th Congress. Many people on both sides of the aisle seem genuinely interested in the Senate framework, and even those who don’t are beginning to accept that the current course is unsustainable. After 30 years of fits and starts, the GOP seems ready to discuss serious reform.