In September 2019, 16-year-old climate activist Greta Thunberg stood before the General Assembly of the United Nations and threw down the gauntlet before world leaders. “We will not let you get away with this,” she said, referring to global inaction on the issue of climate change. “Right here, right now, is where we draw the line. The world is waking up. And change is coming, whether you like it or not.” Her words were strong, and they were backed up by an even stronger wave of youth climate activism on the issue of climate change. From school strikes in Thunberg’s native Sweden to sit-ins in the U.S. Capitol, young activists and organizations like the Sunrise Movement and Zero Hour have made it impossible to ignore the issue of climate change. Once overshadowed by issues like race, national security, or the economy, climate has now become one of the primary issues on the minds of many Americans going into the 2020 election. But the question remains: will this wave of youth activism be strong enough to make climate change the central issue of the 2020 election, or will it fizzle out before it can reach the shore?
Despite its large role in the Democratic primaries, it is unlikely that youth climate activism will have the power to make climate change the central issue for voters come next November. This year’s presidential election will require the Democratic nominee to perform a delicate balancing act between two voting blocs whose interests often diverge: namely, older swing voters and young progressive activists. To appease the former, it seems that candidates will ultimately move away from platforms centered around climate change and toward ones based on more traditional issues like the economy, national security, and electability.
A Changing Voter Base
For years, elections have been dominated by the aging boomer generation, but this November may see a dramatic shift toward younger voters, setting up a clash between two very different voting blocs. On one side, boomers tend to vote reliably and consistently based on traditional issues like healthcare, jobs, infrastructure, and social security. In the past, around 70 percent of boomers have turned out to vote in presidential elections, compared to just under 50 percent of millennials. In 2020, older voters in swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin will draw the attention of the eventual Democratic nominee. Their votes for Donald Trump in 2016 may have cost Democrats an electoral college victory, and winning them back will likely occupy significant headspace in the Democratic Party in 2020.
On the other side, young voters have taken up the activist mantle and begun carving out a place for themselves as an influential voting bloc. While young people are often overlooked in elections — seen merely as protestors, rather than as voters — recent trends suggest that they may turn out in force this November. Between the 2014 and 2018 midterm elections, voter turnout among 18 to 29-year-olds rose from 20 to 36 percent, representing the largest increase in voter turnout among any age group. In 2018, voters under the age of 53 cast 62.5 million votes, outnumbering the 60.1 million votes cast by voters over age 53 and signaling a shift toward a younger electorate. Voter turnout among 18 to 29-year-olds also increased between the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections, and it is expected to further increase in the 2020 presidential election. Slowly but surely, the political environment is changing, and its landscapers are becoming younger and younger. Millennials are expected to outnumber boomers in the 2020 election, making them a key demographic for both presidential candidates and contenders for other offices.
The rise of this young and previously unremarkable portion of the electorate has forced many candidates to reconsider which issues their campaigns will prioritize. To win office, they are realizing that they may have to more closely align their platforms with the demands of young people. Whereas older voters have traditionally pushed politicians to focus on issues like healthcare, trade, and national security, younger voters are refocusing the national conversation around issues like affordable education, gun control, civil rights, and, importantly, climate change. On this last issue in particular, candidates will have to walk a fine line between alienating swing voters by adopting radical climate proposals and angering youth activists by paying too little attention to climate.
Climate’s Struggle to Take Center Stage
Climate change has rapidly developed from a side note of public policy discussions to a key issue for many young voters. According to the biannual Youth Poll conducted by the Harvard Institute of Politics, 46 percent of young Americans believe that the government should do more to mitigate the effects of climate change, even if doing so would mean sacrificing sustained economic growth. Moreover, 34 percent of young Americans say that environmental protection should be the primary foreign policy goal of the United States, a level of support exceeded only by support for protecting human rights abroad. For young voters, climate change is no longer a side note — it may be the most critical factor they consider when casting their ballots this November.
This shifting perception of climate change has been driven in part by the increasing frequency and severity of climate-related emergencies, from stronger hurricanes in the Caribbean to larger wildfires in California and Australia. However, it has been youth activism on the part of individuals and organizations like Greta Thunberg, the Sunrise Movement, Zero Hour, and the U.S. Youth Climate Strike that has brought the vernacular of the climate crisis into the national spotlight. Young people have called for a range of policies to mitigate the effects of climate change, from the implementation of a Green New Deal — a plan to make the United States carbon-neutral by 2030 — to the declaration of the climate crisis as a national emergency. In past election cycles, these measures were embraced only by candidates on the fringe, yet in 2020, they have been embraced by almost every major Democratic candidate for president.
Chris D’Agostino, the lead of Sunrise Movement’s policy and action teams for Massachusetts, traces this change back to a growing sense of frustration among young people. “I think the anger of the youth — and the realization that the Republican party doesn’t have much of a future with the youth — is going to accelerate this issue,” he told the HPR. “That’s what’s driving people to adopt more ambitious climate stances.”
However, the pressure to satisfy both young activists and the all-important older swing voters in the general election will likely shift climate change out of candidates’ main focus in favor of more traditional issues that consistently appeal to the centrist voters that Democrats will need to defeat President Trump. Such issues include the question of electability.
For Harvard government professor Dustin Tingley, an electable Democratic candidate needs to have a solid climate plan without making it the centerpiece of his or her campaign platform. “I think Democratic candidates would be wise to keep climate and the environment very much in the mix,” Tingley told the HPR. “But I don’t think running a presidential campaign predicated on climate change would be a recipe for winning.”
Climate change poses a distinct challenge to candidates both because most of its effects are currently intangible and because these effects will probably not impact older swing voters to the same degree that they will young activists. Moreover, radical policies to mitigate the effects of climate change are often hard for voters to swallow — from carbon taxes to cap and trade, they are prone to criticism. Many climate policies face accusations of high prices or overly aspirational goals, especially from those who deny the existence or severity of climate change. President Trump, for instance, often bashes the Green New Deal to the delight of his supporters, claiming at one July 2019 campaign rally that it would “kill millions of jobs. It’ll crush the dreams of the poorest Americans.” Following his lead, commentators on the right frequently use the intangible nature of climate change to frame it as a nonissue that distracts from problems more deserving of attention.
Getting the Narrative Right
Nevertheless, the pressure of youth climate activism has made it impossible for candidates to ignore climate change. While Tingley and others see this development as a liability, others believe that, with the right framing, climate change could draw in voters and help corral a winning coalition. “There [are] so many benefits to a green economy that connect to the kitchen-table issues,” said D’Agostino. “If the candidates were willing to make that connection, it could be a huge boon.”
Josh Freed, leader of the Climate and Energy Program at the nonprofit, centrist think tank Third Way, agrees with D’Agostino. “The candidates need to tell a clear, compelling story of how actions to address climate are going to benefit voters,” he told the HPR, arguing that climate change could be used as a powerful lens to discuss key issues like infrastructure, national security, and social justice. For instance, candidates could talk about how heavy rains and flooding may damage transportation infrastructure, lengthening commutes and harming the flow of goods. They could talk about how prolonged droughts in the Middle East and Asia could topple regimes and threaten global stability. Or, they could talk about how extreme weather events would affect the worst off in society most of all — and this will all happen within the next twenty years. “Those are the kinds of clear stories that meet people where they are,” Freed explained. “They appeal to the voters who will decide the election, who may be on the fence about turning out and who need to be moved in the right direction.”
For many, it is clear that meeting the challenge of climate change will require a complete reevaluation of the way society operates. In much the same way, making climate central to this year’s election will require a total reframing of key issues in the context of climate. It is a challenge that someone must take up if the United States is to implement a comprehensive climate change policy. But despite the possibility of galvanizing a broader coalition of climate voters, it is a challenge that candidates will likely shy away from in favor of relying on safer strategies to defeat President Trump. Climate policy may be increasingly on stage as November approaches, but it is ultimately unlikely to steal the spotlight and become the defining issue of the 2020 presidential election.
Whatever the Democratic candidates do, it seems that the current wave of youth climate activism is not going anywhere. For candidates and older swing voters alike, youth climate activists like D’Agostino have a clear message: “Your inaction will devastate us as a generation, and we will continue to hone in on our righteous anger.”
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