Last week the IOP released its 19th edition of polling data coming from Young Americans ages 18-to-29 years old. In this report, they used a fairly accurate demographic to collect the data, but polled a group that was more likely to vote, with 59-percent of respondents voting in 2008, compared to 49-percent among generic 18-to-29 year olds who voted in 2008.
Although the data revealed that President Obama’s approval rating among this group had risen to 55-percent after dropping below 50-percent in November, when looking at the numbers it seems in actuality Obama is not really in the clear with the youth, his strongest demographic in 2008.
In January of 2009, just after he was inaugurated, Obama had an approval rating of 73-percent among the 18-to-29 group. In the election Obama carried 62-percent of the youth vote.
Considering that he now sits at a 55-percent approval rating (almost 20-points below his rating in the last election), along with just a 12-point advantage (compared to a 32-point advantage in 2008) in a hypothetical election between a generic Republican candidate, it’s safe to say that right now he is not really in position to rally the troops once more.
Young voter-turnout in 2008 reached new highs and these voters voted strongly for Obama, but with a 2-to-1 margin of young people still feeling the country is headed on the wrong track, it might be the Republicans who can sweep in and pick up many of these discouraged voters. Don’t forget that in 2004, Kerry won only 56-percent of the youth vote, and in 2000 Gore split the vote entirely.
All Raw Polling Data/Graphs can be found at: http://www.iop.harvard.edu/var/ezp_site/storage/fckeditor/file/IOP_Spring_2011_Topline.pdf