Why the Tea Party makes this midterm different from others
Throughout this election season, political commentators have been comparing the upcoming contests to the 1994 midterms, when the GOP took back Congress during the first term of a Democratic presidency. While 1994 makes for an apt comparison in some respects, the emergence of the Tea Party—and the energy that movement has generated—has been the defining characteristic of this election cycle, and it is the Tea Party that ultimately makes the 2010 midterms unique. For the first time in recent years, a truly outside-the-Beltway movement has produced viable candidates in congressional elections. The success of the Tea Party may thus signify some weakening of the two-party system.
The Rise of Outsiders
As mountains of polling data indicate, many Americans are unhappy with the Obama administration and the Democratic Congress, and much of this dissatisfaction stems from the poor economy that has plagued the first two years of the Obama presidency. Susan Milligan, a resident fellow at Harvard’s Institute of Politics, explained that when the economy is doing badly, people become resistant towards big changes like the health care and financial reform bills and impatient with politics generally. The slow economy, combined with an ambitious Democratic agenda, created a markedly anti-establishment environment.
Much of the Tea Party’s success, then, comes from its ability to channel this anger against establishment politics. David King, lecturer in public policy at the Harvard Kennedy School, said that the Tea Party has excelled in building momentum not necessarily in favor of any policy initiatives, but more broadly against “politics as usual.” “Obviously ’94 was built around anger,” King told the HPR, “but the big difference between now and then is that in ’94 the Republicans had a clearly articulated policy agenda, while now the anger seems to be focused without a clear agenda by people who are true outsiders.” Like no election in recent history, the enthusiasm in these midterms has been generated by candidates who truly have no experience or ties in Washington.
Some have argued that the Tea Party movement merely signifies a power shift within the Republican Party, as opposed to a significant change in the political makeup of the entire electorate. Yet in an interview with the HPR, William Galston, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and former advisor to President Clinton, noted that the policies of the Obama administration have caused even moderate voters to doubt the Democratic leadership. Galston explained, “Right now, a lot of people in the center of the electorate, not just conservatives, have been spooked by rising levels of spending and the perception that the federal government is entering sectors… that were previously in private hands.” The Tea Party’s message of smaller government has become more attractive to moderate voters.
Setting the Stage for a Third Party
One of the big questions that remains to be answered is how the Tea Party will affect the two-party system. Thomas Patterson, a professor of government at the Kennedy School, explained, “When you only have two choices and it’s not going very well, you have only one other option—the other party.” Third parties can enter the fray to provide alternatives, but they have been notably short-lived in American history. It is unclear if voter dissatisfaction will linger after the economy recovers; dissipating anger would take the air out of the third-party balloon. Moreover, if Tea Party candidates become a part of the establishment against which they are fighting, their base may turn away.
Yet Milligan believes the 2010 election cycle, regardless of the outcome, could foretell lasting political change. With independent voters composing an increasing proportion of the American electorate, she said, “It’s possible that we’re moving to a point where we’ll have a viable third party.” That third party won’t necessarily be the Tea Party, but the movement has shown that alternatives to establishment Democrats and Republicans can be politically viable.
John Prince ’13 is a Staff Writer and Arjun Mody ’14 is a Contributing Writer.
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