The activation of the youth vote was a defining feature of the 2018 midterm elections. It was discussed and debated at length in the months leading up to the elections because of the sheer size of the youth population eligible to vote. The elections confirmed the voting power of this generation, as voter turnout rates for people under the age of 30 surged, especially on college campuses. An estimated 31 percent of eligible youths came out to the polls, representing a more than 10 percent increase in youth voter turnout from the last midterm elections in 2014.
The participation of the youth population proved integral to the success of the Democratic Party in reclaiming the House of Representatives. Surveys taken before the elections showed that younger voters would strongly favor Democrats: a poll by GenForward showed that 67 percent planned to vote for a Democrat to a seat in the House, compared to only 32 percent who wanted to elect a Republican. This tendency towards liberalism resulted from the ethnic and racial diversity of the youngest part of the electorate.
The Causes of the Trend
The demographics of this year’s young voters reflected the diversity of both voting and non-voting citizens within that age group. As of 2015, minorities comprised around 45 percent of the population between the ages of 18 and 34. At that time, the composition of the under 18-year-old population was reportedly even more diverse, and so it is probable that the number of people of color in the youth voting population either remained the same or increased in 2018. According to CIRCLE, about 40 percent of this year’s youth voters were non-white, the highest minority population of any generation.
The voting patterns of young non-white voters mirrored that of their older counterparts since minority voters of all ages tended to vote for Democrats over Republicans. A poll conducted by Pew Research Center found that nationally, white voters were the only racial demographic for which a majority of people voted for Republicans (54 percent). The minority groups considered all had strong majorities of people surveyed who planned to vote for Democrats: 77 percent of Asian voters, 69 percent of Hispanic voters, and 90 percent of black voters favored Democratic candidates for the House of Representatives.
Among youth voters, though, white voters were more liberal than the national average. People of all races were more inclined to vote for Democrats over Republicans, but there was still a racial divide. About 57 percent of white youth voters planned to vote for Democrats before the midterms, while 83 percent of their non-white voting peers said the same.
The preference for Democrats among young white voters is still a result of their generation’s diversity. As nearly half of citizens under age 30 are people of color, it is probable that most white citizens of this group have interacted with or know a person of color. Greater contact between people of different races could, theoretically, promote healthy relationships between them. Therefore, young white voters may be more empathetic about the issues affecting minorities than their predecessors and consequently, be more likely to support candidates who care about these issues.
Even if direct interracial contact is not increasing, as could be true because of persistent geographic segregation, exposure to minority issues may still well be due to the advent of social media. Movements such as Black Lives Matter and the Women’s March received widespread attention on social media platforms. This coverage, depending on the sources viewed by the user, may be positive or negative, but being presented the issues at all is a form of contact. This could be contributing to the increased liberalism of the generation as a whole.
Strong disapproval of Trump and of the GOP also influenced the way in which young people voted. As found by the same GenForward survey, 60 percent of youth voters indicated a dislike for Trump, and nearly as many claimed the same for the Republican Party as a whole.
Youth voters were also motivated by their alignment with candidates’ perspectives on social issues. In this election, many young voters supported candidates based on their stances on immigration, gun control, reproductive rights, and race. Regarding these issues, many favored the attitudes of the Democratic Party.
Future Demographics
The coming generations are predicted to be even more diverse than previous ones, with estimates predicting that the under age 30 population in the United States will be majority minority by 2023. There is debate, however, about whether population diversity is growing as significantly as reported. A few academics maintain that Hispanic Americans should not be regarded as a distinct ethnic group, but rather as a subset of the white population. Though this argument affects the racial and ethnic makeup of the nation from an academic standpoint, it should not profoundly influence the movement towards the Democratic Party among voters. As previously mentioned, Hispanic voters do typically vote for the Democratic Party at a higher rate than their white counterparts. Merging the two groups, therefore, would likely only result in greater liberalism recorded in the white population.
Additionally, Hispanic members of the population, similarly to other ethnic minorities, often live in close proximity to one another. Existing culture and shared ideas within these communities or geographic areas will presumably remain strong, and some research suggests that physical environment greatly influences political ideologies. Thus, preference for the Democratic Party among Hispanic voters should endure.
Long-Term Effects
Voters under the age of 30 overwhelmingly supported Democratic candidates, which was at least in part due to the ethnic and racial diversity of the youngest voting populous. As the U.S. population becomes more diverse, it will be essential to monitor this diversity’s effects on American politics. The trend towards liberalism will likely continue as the norms in society change to emphasize social, political, and economic equality between groups.
Democracy is a system that is meant to empower the people, and leaders are often elected because their sentiments reflect those of the public they represent. As a result, the nation’s political landscape reasonably shifts in accordance with societal concerns. The Democratic Party will likely continue to advocate for social issues in such a manner as to cultivate the youth vote, and it is not entirely improbable that the Republican Party will alter its posture on certain issues as younger, diverse generations gain greater electoral power.
Image Credit: Flickr/Theresa Thompson