Midterm elections already loom
Each election cycle seems to begin the day its predecessor ends. Since the midterm elections will affect President Obama’s ability to enact major pieces of his long-term agenda, it is already worthwhile to start examining the outlook for November 2010.
The president’s party ordinarily loses congressional seats in the midterm elections. In the past 19 off-year elections, the ruling party has gained seats only twice. According to David King, a professor at the Harvard Kennedy School, “Expectations are high following a presidential election, but usually go unmet by the midterms.” Two exceptions to this trend came in the wake of national crises, most recently in 2002, when security concerns galvanized Republican support. The current recession will likely be a similarly dominant issue in the 2010 elections. If the economy begins improving next year, and the recovery is attributed to President Obama’s policies, the Democrats will probably enjoy their third straight victory. But if the stimulus and bank-rescue plans are unable to forestall a depression, the GOP stands a strong chance of routing the Democrats.
Different Directions?
The Democrats’ main advantage going into the midterms is the large number of swing-state Senate seats held by retiring Republicans. Alexander Burns, a journalist with Politico, told the HPR that the Democrats “have realistic shots at Republican seats in Ohio, Missouri, Florida, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania … just for starters.” At least five GOP seats will be open in 2010; that number could easily expand to nine. President Obama’s popularity and the state of the economy will be especially important in these contests, since national issues often dominate Senate races. Both parties have enjoyed early success in recruiting A-list candidates. Democrats have high expectations for Robin Carnahan, Missouri’s secretary of state, and Paul Hodes, a New Hampshire congressman. Republicans are looking to former Rep. Rob Portman to hold the line in Ohio, and are hoping that Charlie Crist, the popular Florida governor, will jump into his state’s open Senate race. The stakes in these elections are extremely high for both parties. By netting just a single seat, the Democrats would gain a filibuster-proof majority of sixty senators, allowing President Obama to put his legislative agenda into overdrive.
The news is not all bad for Republicans, whose best hopes for regrouping lie in the House of Representatives. With most swing districts already in Democratic hands, there are few opportunities for Obama’s Democrats to increase their majority. Furthermore, two straight “wave” elections have left some Democrats representing very conservative districts. Stephen Ansolabehere, a Harvard professor of government, told the HPR that “freshman Democrats in conservative districts are most likely to lose” once the unusual factor that propelled them to victory (probably President Bush’s unpopularity) is gone. Also, because local issues play a major role in congressional races, the Republicans’ chances in the House may not entirely hinge on the perceived results of the Obama agenda. Even if the economy rebounds, well-chosen Republican candidates with local experience could ride to victory by emphasizing their understanding of issues unique to their districts, rather than by running against the Democratic Congress and President.
Handicapping the Midterms
This November’s gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia will garner a lot of attention, and many commentators will be eager to make predictions for the midterms based on their results. Early polling shows New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine extremely vulnerable to a challenge from Republican U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie. In Virginia, three Democrats, including former DNC chairman Terry McAuliffe, will compete for the right to battle Republican Bob McDonnell, the state attorney general. Though some political analysts view these contests as bellwethers, King argued that they “will not tell us what the national mood will be like in 2010,” as gubernatorial elections are won and lost on state issues.
Obviously all predictions should be taken with a mountain of salt at this early stage. Any number of unforeseen political developments could change the outlook. The best advice to prognosticators would be to look to the economy for signals, because, as Ansolabehere told the HPR, “If the economy is still in recession next summer, 2010 will probably be a tough year for the Democrats.”