As election day approaches, a potential blue wave is on the horizon. Polls show Democratic candidate Joe Biden’s lead holding steady, and even states once safely in Trump’s camp could be in play. Among the states swelling to support the former vice president, a curious player throws their hat in the ring: Nebraska’s 2nd electoral district.
In most things political, a state of Nebraska’s 1.8 million population might seem insignificant, even if it did not trend consistently red. However, Nebraska is one of two states (the other being Maine) that split their Electoral College votes. This means that even while most of the state polls in Trump’s favor, the second electoral district — which contains the city of Omaha — could very likely go blue this election cycle. And that could have a huge impact both on the 2020 election and on electoral policy for years to come.
Critics write off Nebraska’s swing district, especially since it went for Trump in 2016. But it is not unprecedented for the mostly-urban district to vote for a Democratic president. In 2008, President Barack Obama split the district from the rest of the state, marking Nebraska’s first vote for a Democrat since Lyndon Johnson carried the state in 1964. And with recent polls showing a secure Biden lead this year, the district has the potential to play a much larger role in deciding the outcome of the election.
Biden has held a steady lead for most of the race so far. However, recent tightening in key swing states is putting Democrats on edge. Both Pennsylvania and Florida, which Trump carried in 2016, saw Biden’s lead shrink by several points, and some analysts fear a repeat of Hillary Clinton’s loss four years ago.
But Biden does not need either state to win — especially if he takes Nebraska’s 2nd district. Even though the DNC sees these states as the most likely pathway to a Biden presidency, there are other states that can get the former vice president to that coveted 270 electoral votes.
The current toss-up states include Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida. However, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan all also went for Trump in 2016, even though they are now trending blue. Without winning any states that voted red in 2016, Biden sits at just 232 Electoral College votes, meaning he has a lot of ground to make up.
But if Trump wins all the safe red states and takes the current toss-up states, including Florida, that puts him at just 248 electoral votes. Without the current blue-leaning states, the incumbent president is a far cry from winning the Electoral College. However, say Pennsylvania pulls a repeat of 2016 and unexpectedly flips red. This would be a huge blow to Biden, a PA native. But, taking Pennsylvania still only puts Trump at 268 electors — two short of a majority.
Here’s where Nebraska’s second district comes into play. To remain competitive, Biden would need to take the remaining states of Arizona, Wisconsin, and Michigan. This would be tough, but all three currently favor Biden, and they would put him at 269 electoral votes. With Trump at 268, that leaves just one vote unaccounted for — Nebraska’s 2nd district.
If Omaha’s district goes for Trump, as it did in 2016, that puts the candidates at an even tie; the vote would then move to the House of Representatives, which would likely lead to Trump’s reelection. But if the district goes blue — as polls indicate it might — it would put Biden over the threshold of 270, and end an administration filled with chaos and turmoil.
Even if the race does not come down to NE-02’s single electoral vote (and we can hope it does not), the state’s vote-splitting policy will have achieved its goal. When the law that split Nebraska’s vote was passed in 1991, state leaders were optimistic that it would increase Nebraska’s relevance on the national stage. Their hopes finally came to fruition in 2008, when Barack Obama’s campaign opened three campaign offices and eventually carried the district.
Though both Romney’s and Trump’s wins in Omaha painted 2008 as nothing more than a fluke, the district’s competitiveness in 2020 is solidifying NE-02 as a swing district. And that keeps the attention coming. In July, the Trump campaign hired five staffers in the district, while the Biden campaign had six. Compared to the mere two Clinton staffers for the area in 1992, today’s Omaha looks like a booming political hub. The vote split has forced candidates to engage with Nebraskans in ways that never would have been possible without it.
Some leaders even see Nebraska and Maine as models for a more democratic future in electoral policy. Critics have long heralded the Electoral College as antidemocratic, especially after the 2000 and 2016 presidential victors failed to win the popular vote. States like California and New York have both seen vote-splitting legislation introduced in state legislatures in recent years, indicating that minority party members are growing weary of the old winner-take-all system. Nebraska and Maine could very well be the leaders in a broader movement to change how we think about our presidential elections.
Regardless, even if Nebraska’s second district does not cast the deciding vote this year, the state’s split-the-vote policy is at the root of a political shake-up. And while we may not know for weeks who won the election, this swing district just might be able to make a difference.
Image by John Matychuk is licensed under the Unsplash License.