Abolish ICE. Eliminate private health insurance. Dismantle the electoral college. Thirty years ago, uttering any of these statements was an act of political suicide. Today, however, these proposals are supported by prominent Democratic politicians. American politics has become increasingly characterized by proposals for sweeping structural change; therefore, Democratic politicians should emphasize broad change if they desire to court youth voters in the 2020 election. Once in office, however, appeals to the political center and proposals for gradual reform are more likely attract the bipartisan support Democrats need to pass legislation.
Abolishing the Electoral College
With big structural changes at the top of their stated priority list, many young, progressive Americans are seeking to do away with the electoral college. According to a recent poll conducted by the Harvard Public Opinion Project, among young likely voters, 84 percent of voters supporting Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and 69 percent of voters supporting Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) are in favor of dismantling the electoral college. A smaller 51 percent of voters supporting former Vice President Joe Biden also support abolishing the electoral college, yet this is still a majority of his support.
However, in practice the antimajoritarian character of the Constitution hinders Democratic hopes of abolishing the electoral college, which would likely require passing a Constitutional amendment. Article V of the Constitution provides that either two-thirds of both houses of Congress or two-thirds of states legislatures must agree to simply propose an amendment, which then has to be passed by three-fourths of state legislatures. Essentially, a newly proposed amendment must overcome two supermajorities in order to become law. Therefore, even though progressive youth voters strongly wish to rid the United States of the electoral college, this move is unlikely to gain the national support necessary to become law.
Similarly to the electoral college, the institutional processes of the Senate are also being challenged. For example, 91 percent of young Democratic likely voters are satisfied with Warren. She has called for the elimination of the Senate filibuster, and her strong support implies that many young Democratic voters are at least open to changing Senate procedures. Eliminating the filibuster would reduce the number of Senate votes required to pass legislation from 60 to a simple majority of 51. This provides further evidence that young Democratic voters seek to significantly alter or altogether abolish long standing political processes. Politicians seeking to appeal to the left wing of the Democratic party should therefore emphasize sweeping structural change as part of their platforms.
The Appetite for Change Transcends Party Lines
Language on the presidential campaign trail also provides insight into contemporary sentiments of sweeping structural change, and it shows that in some cases, support for broad structural reforms crosses party lines, at least in principle. HPOP data found that Sanders’s campaign language of “the power of organized people against organized power” was the most popular among young Republicans and likely voters for President Trump. Almost 40 percent of young Republican likely voters chose Sanders’s campaign language, and a third of the Democrat respondents favored it as well.
This phenomenon highlights that voters from both parties seem to be leaning towards more abrupt, structural change. Such sentiments could stem from Trump’s populist wave in 2016, or simply from disillusionment with the status quo. Furthermore, American citizens’ high level of distrust of their government is likely perpetuating this hunger for broad change.
Gradual Change Garners Votes
Based on these findings, it is clear that young voters are hungry for substantial political reform. However, politics is about more than catering to the whims of one’s own base; candidates need to be able to gain bipartisan support for their initiatives. Accordingly, proposals of incremental reform are likely more feasible than an extensive revamping of the system, despite young voters’ desire for deeper structural change
Gun legislation is a prime example. Based on HPOP data, while 83 percent of Warren supporters and 82 percent of Biden supporters advocate for a ban on assault weapons, only 30 percent of young Republicans do the same. An outright ban on assault weapons is a significant, structural change that may appeal to the left but challenges pro-gun rights advocacy typically seen on the right. Furthermore, despite the potential merits of an assault weapons ban, such an action would almost certainly be impeded by the NRA and other lobbyists.
By contrast, incremental gun legislation wins greater cross-party support. Likely voters who prioritize the implementability of a policy were 88 percent in favor of increased background checks for gun purchases, and their support does not stop there. Both 92 percent of young Warren supporters and 78 percent of young Republican voters surveyed by HPOP supported expanded background checks. The kind of more gradual reform that this policy reflects garners broader support from both sides of the ideological spectrum.
From the data regarding gun legislation, politicians should conclude that incremental legislation is significantly more likely to win widespread, bipartisan support. If Democrats desire more Republican support for combating climate change or immigration reform, they should take slow steps to their intended goal. So, in our current political context, proposals such as the Green New Deal or abolishing ICE are likely to only scare away Republicans willing to compromise and reduce the likelihood of legislation actually being passed.
HPOP findings indicate that big structural change is theoretically attractive to voters from both parties. Specifically, supporters of President Trump, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders share a desire for sweeping change and a general distrust of political elites. However, the data also suggests that once it is time to actually implement policies, more gradual change will likely attract bipartisan support. If politicians desire to actually pass legislation, they must appeal to moderate voters to bring about subtle political reform.
This article is part of a series analyzing data from the Harvard Public Opinion Project’s Fall 2019 Youth Poll. Other articles in the series can be found here, and the poll data can be found here.
Image Credit: Flickr/Phil Roeder