At the first Democratic presidential debate in June, Mayor Pete Buttigieg had strong words for Republicans. His words were uncharacteristic, not for the widely maligned (among Democrats) immigration policies he attacked, but for the vehicle he used to attack them. “For a party that associates with Christianity to say it is O.K. to suggest that God would smile on the division of families at the hands of federal agents, that God would condone putting children in cages,” Buttigieg declared, “[that party] has lost all claim to ever use religious language again.”
Buttigieg’s words were notable for their invocation of faith, and this cycle, this is not his territory alone. Many of the 2020 Democratic presidential candidates have made similar efforts to make faith-based appeals to voters. It is a development that represents a departure from the recent past and signals a potential window of opportunity to retool the Democratic party’s appeal to the American people.
“A Christian, a Liberal, and a Democrat”
Vice President Mike Pence is fond of saying “I am a Christian, a conservative, and a Republican, in that order,” but traditionally, equivalent proclamations have been harder to come by among Democratic politicians. In 2016, Hillary Clinton, a devout Methodist, was often ill at ease discussing her faith publicly. This cycle, however, the opposite has been true. Buttigieg — an Episcopalian — former Vice President Joe Biden — a practicing Catholic — Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) — raised Baptist) — and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) — a Methodist — have all spoken at length about how their faith has impacted their lives.
Steven Krueger, president of the Catholic Democrats, sees this development alone as promising. Crucially, he told the HPR, the candidates are talking about faith “with authenticity.” If the candidates and Democratic party leaders can cultivate an environment in which faith is more openly discussed, “Democrats [overall] may find a stronger footing in which to express their faith.”
Religion Beyond the ‘Religious Right’
Despite the progress Democratic candidates have made in expressing their own faith, they still face the question of how to actively incorporate faith into their campaigns. To do so requires acknowledging multiple demographic developments, both within voters of faith and among the electorate at large.
For nearly half a century, Democrats have struggled to find a place for faith in their party, often allowing Republicans to claim the moral high ground. Starting with the Nixon presidency and culminating with the Reagan era, Republicans have long staked claim over religious voters. Indeed, in response to the social changes of the ‘60s and ‘70s in areas like school prayer and abortion, many mostly white Christian voters — who were once part of the Democratic base — consolidated their support behind the social conservatism of Republicans in what became known as the ‘religious right.’ By the mid-2000s, evangelicals comprised of over one third of the Republican base, and Republicans have dominated the demographic. Since 2004, no Republican presidential candidate has gotten less than 74 percent of the evangelical vote, culminating with Donald Trump’s record-high 81 percent of the vote in 2016.
Among the larger religious electorate, however, voters do not skew so dramatically. Apart from the religious left — a comparatively smaller group of consistently liberal religious voters — there is the large ‘religious middle.’ Around 40 percent of mainline Protestants and Catholics identify not as liberal or conservative but as “moderate.” Catholics, for instance, have split more or less in half in every election since 2000.
Furthermore, religious voters tell only part of the story. Voters of faith must be viewed as part of a larger picture, which includes the so-called “nones” — voters who have no religious affiliation. The “nones” have grown to make up an increasingly large part of the American population and, importantly, the Democratic base. From 2007 to 2014, the portion of Americans who identify as Christians dropped from 78.4 percent to 70.6 percent, precipitated mostly by a drop in the aforementioned mainline Protestants and Catholics. In contrast, over that same time period, the “nones” in American grew from 16 percent to nearly 23 percent. These “nones” have become an integral part of the Democratic party, now comprising a third of the Democratic party base. “If you want to talk about growth in the religious community, [the nones are] where to look,” said Richard Parker, lecturer in public policy at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government. “It is away from religion.”
A Moral Majority … for Democrats?
It is in this environment of demographic change that this cycle’s Democrats are attempting to build their base from the many diverse pockets within the American population — a base that, some contend, should include more voters of faith. In 2016, Hillary Clinton’s campaign made virtually no effort to reach out to religious groups such as white evangelicals, even while religious voters struggled to relate to Trump. This marked a departure from Barack Obama’s presidential campaigns, which made a concerted effort to draw in voters of faith. Now, Democrats seem eager not to make the same mistakes they did in 2016. “Faith in politics is largely being driven in reaction to Donald Trump. One of the primary expressions of that is you have Democrats not just talking about faith,” said Michael Wear, who headed the religious outreach effort for Obama’s 2012 campaign, in an interview with the HPR. “Many of the candidates are asserting that, in the Trump era, [the conversation about values is] their table.”
So far, this effort has been evident in two ways: religious rhetoric and religious outreach. Rhetorically, the Democratic candidates have attempted to emphasize the religious and moral values that underscore their policy positions. Buttigieg, as his comments on family separation policy at the border indicate, has consistently emphasized his belief that Democratic ideas are backed by religious and moral values. Similarly, Booker has argued that the Democratic Party is the one promoting the values of “justice and decency and kindness and mercy” that are found in Judaism. And at CNN’s town hall on October 10, Warren explained her acceptance of gay marriage by reciting a song she learned in church as a young girl, singing, “Jesus loves all the children of the world.” That idea, she said, “was the basis of the faith I grew up in.”
The candidates have begun to back up these appeals with on-the-ground efforts. Buttigieg was the first to hire a faith outreach director, Rev. Shawna Foster. Booker and Biden have followed suit by hiring faith outreach directors, although these hires are specifically geared toward the South Carolina primary.
But Wear argues that, despite these steps forward, there remains much work to be done if Democrats want to sway moderate or conservative religious voters. “There is promise, there is opportunity, [but] it is yet to be determined whether any of the candidates are going to be positioned to take advantage of that opportunity.” He calls the efforts so far “generally low-risk appeals to faith,” and is looking to see what the Democrats’ next steps will be. “I think what you are looking for now is, are there going to be campaigns that are going to be willing to … make some investments that cost something? … Are any of the candidates willing to take positions that appeal to the faith community that might put them in a difficult spot with other constituencies?”
Krueger holds a similar view. In particular, he believes that how the Democrats frame their position on abortion could play an important role in the general election, especially with regard to midwestern swing states like Wisconsin and Michigan. He noted that Catholics there hold more conservative views on abortion compared to Catholics overall and constitute a disproportionately large percentage of the electorate.
In order to potentially sway voters like these, Krueger argues that Democrats must change not their abortion stance but the way they speak about it. “They will have to begin to speak of abortion as a moral issue that impacts two lives and not just one, even as they express their support for Roe v. Wade,” he said. Nevertheless, Krueger expressed his conviction that, even if the Democratic candidate does not resonate with faith voters on abortion or other moral issues, “the moral imperative to replace Trump will prevail.”
The Deciding Vote: The Faithful?
With new efforts underway to reach out to religious voters, questions remain about how voters of faith — and the Democrats’ efforts to woo them — will play as part of the overall election cycle. Democrats seem to see an opportunity, based on their attempts thus far to appeal to faith-based values. But in a greater political climate that presents many more considerations, the extent to which faith voters will be a focus is, at least so far, unclear.
John Anzalone, a pollster for the Obama, Clinton, and Biden campaigns, told the HPR that he expects religious voters to play a larger role in the general election than in the Democratic primary. He emphasizes that, when considering these voters, “it is not necessarily what today you would consider base politics anymore,” referencing the decreasing homogeneity among religious groups. This does not mean religious groups lack a part to play, however. Anzalone indicated that religious bases could play an important role in the general election by getting behind a candidate like Biden, for example. “I do not think that [appealing to religious groups is] necessarily base politics, but it is part of broader politics,” Anzalone says.
Democrats have clearly made an effort to sway a substantial contingent of faith voters that could become part of a winning coalition in 2020. Candidates have emphasized their own faith, sought to connect it to Democratic ideals, and started recruiting efforts on the ground. Exactly how important or successful those efforts will be remains up in the air, but it is clear that Democrats are seeking to broaden their appeal as they set out to take back the White House in 2020.
Image Credit: Flickr/Gage Skidmore