As Henry Shull recently noted in his post “Decision 2012: Handicapping the Hopefuls with Danny Hayes”, there is a new possible candidate in the GOP Presidential mix: Michele Bachmann, who suffers a large name recognition deficit and is a long-shot candidate for the nomination. But how hard would it be, exactly, for her to win the GOP nomination for President?
Sarah Palin has been considered as a contender for the Republican nomination for some time now, but until recently, she has been the only woman in the rather large field. So it is a surprise to think that Palin ally and fellow Tea Party advocate Michele Bachmann, a congresswoman from Minnesota, is suddenly thinking about 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue herself. With strong conservative credentials and a large base of supporters, Bachmann’s campaign may become a reality – and her experience in Congress definitely gives her an edge against some in the field. Not only does her potential run undercut the notion that Palin speaks for the Tea Party, but it also further complicates matters – how much does America know about Bachmann? And if they know more, are they willing to give her a chance? Today, the answers to both of those questions seem to be “no.” Michele Bachmann will have a very steep hill to climb. Here’s why:
Conventional wisdom says that low name recognition puts candidates at a considerable disadvantage. But for Michele Bachmann, the opposite may be true. Nations Pollster/Politicons Polling gives Bachmann a 9-point deficit against President Obama, while Palin is down 13 points. That is a great place to be if you’re planning on running as the “other Sarah,” complete with conservative credentials and Mama Grizzly persona. Public Policy Polling (which, incidentally, shows Bachmann down by 18) reveals that about half of Americans (48%) do not know what they think of Bachmann yet. But the numbers are revealing. Of the half that do know her, 22% like her so far. 31% don’t. That means that if her numbers continue to grow at that rate, we will see her with a favorability deficit of about 20% when everyone catches on to the Bachmann phenomenon. And that is definitely not a great place to be if you want to be President.
Why do more people dislike her than like her? She is infamous for her regularly surprising soundbites. For instance, just recently, she stated that the Founding Fathers worked to end slavery: “But we also know that the very founders that wrote those documents worked tirelessly until slavery was no more in the United States,” she declared, which would have involved the Founding Fathers working from beyond the grave. But if you choose not to condemn her based on her knowledge of fundamental American history, you can probably take issue with this earlier statement from 2009: “I find it interesting that it was back in the 1970s that the swine flu broke out under another, then under another Democrat president, Jimmy Carter. I’m not blaming this on President Obama, I just think it’s an interesting coincidence.” And if that is not enough, she also has displayed little awareness of scientific fact: “Carbon dioxide is portrayed as harmful. But there isn’t even one study that can be produced that shows that carbon dioxide is a harmful gas.” (April 2009) Rewriting history, apportioning blame, and defying the scientific community are not strong talking points for any candidate.
It is no wonder, then, that her recent response to the State of the Union address has been parodied and criticized. But it is important to recognize that Bachmann does face the real issue of not being taken seriously. She was firstly criticized for seemingly dividing the GOP, upstaging Congressman Ryan’s official response with one of her own, sponsored by the Tea Party – and attempting to put herself on equal footing with the President. Secondly, it was unfortunate for her that the Tea Party’s recording was not the one that made it to the American people, but CNN’s – and she was not looking at CNN’s camera. This simple technical misunderstanding proved disastrous. Saturday Night Live has already begun giving her a dose of what they gave Governor Palin, and others feel she is just seeking attention by floating the idea of a run – how much more will she be able to withstand?
Perhaps the Tea Party isn’t planning on taking over the GOP – but Congresswoman Bachmann will not find the path to the top of the Tea Party itself an easy one. Governor Palin is already wearing that media-anointed crown, and Palin has the perpetual presence, resources, and large base that would make it difficult for anyone to successfully challenge her for America’s conservative voters.
Even if Bachmann had not made some of her comments over the years, she would face numerous challenges on her way to the top of the GOP ticket. Regardless, Bachmann is a popular Tea Party force; she definitely has experience and clout in the political arena, and she will add a unique voice to the conversation, one colored by the fervent conservatism she is known to espouse. Whether it is one America will be responsive to is a question yet to be answered, but the early analysis seems to be that her gaze is a bit too far to the right for most.
Photo credit: Congresswoman Bachmann’s Official House Website: http://bachmann.house.gov/UploadedFiles/Rep_Michele_Bachmann_Official_Photo.JPG