The midterms will leave the GOP facing a key decision for 2012
At press time, most political prognosticators give the Republicans better-than-even odds of taking control of the House of Representatives in the November elections. Regardless of the outcome, however, President Obama will likely tack towards the center to prime himself for reelection. This will leave the Republicans facing a difficult choice: energize the base by creating legislative gridlock, which may turn off independents, or fight Obama for the center and cooperate with him on moderate legislation, at the risk of alienating the Tea Party supporters that have been essential to the party’s revitalization. Compromise between those two extremes is possible, and in fact, such a compromise may improve the productivity of the very Congress that conservatives have railed against.
President Obama’s Response
Regardless of who controls Congress, President Obama will likely pursue a centrist agenda to position himself for reelection in 2012. Carlos Diaz, a lecturer in government at Harvard, noted that until recently Obama has taken advantage of lopsided Democratic majorities in Congress. “Obama has been able to sail through Congress [and pass] major initiatives without much bipartisan compromise,” said Diaz. While health care reform and the financial overhaul were passed with little Republican support, to regain his footing after the inevitable loss of seats Obama will undoubtedly try to find common ground with Republicans.
Obama has already joined hands with Republican leaders to support some controversial new education reforms; the “Race to the Top” initiative—though criticized heavily by teachers’ unions for emphasizing merit pay—has gained bipartisan support. This is one of several areas where it is possible for Obama to ally with Republicans but still make headway on the issues he campaigned on. By showing the electorate his willingness to extend an olive branch, Obama can lay claim to the center ahead of the presidential election.
Gridlock or Compromise?
The first challenge the GOP will face after the midterms is uniting the party behind its leadership. The party is currently divided into many factions: moderates are facing off against conservatives, the establishment against the grassroots, and the “old guard” against the “young guns.” As Diaz noted, “After the 1994 elections there was a clear leader of the Republican Party, Newt Gingrich. We haven’t seen that yet today.”
Republicans will face the challenge of keeping their core supporters and Tea Party activists energized, while at the same time appealing to enough moderates to recapture the presidency. The first of these two tasks could entail opposing the Obama administration on all new legislation and blocking any initiatives unpalatable to the conservative base. For example, Congressman Darrell Issa (R-Calif.) has said he will flood the White House with subpoenas for documents, a proposal that Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) publicly supported. That would undoubtedly exacerbate already tense relations between the two parties, and could backfire for the Republicans, as their impeachment of President Clinton did in 1998. Republicans have also said that they will attempt to repeal the health care bill, a proposal which has energized the GOP base but may not resonate with voters looking for a positive agenda.
On the other hand, the GOP could reciprocate Obama’s attempt to claim the center by cooperating with Democrats. This possibility might seem unlikely at first; as Steve Ansolabehere, a professor of government at Harvard, pointed out, the Tea Party’s defeat of a number of establishment GOP candidates “might frustrate Republicans” in any attempt to move towards the center.
Still, conservative Republicans and like-minded Democrats could find common ground. The two parties could try to whittle down the federal deficit by reducing earmarks and reforming the tax system to eliminate inefficiencies. If both parties come together in a play for the center ahead of 2012, we may, in fact, see a surprisingly functional Congress next year.
Preparing for 2012
Newly elected GOP congressmen and senators will have to consider their roles in Washington carefully. President Obama has already begun bringing in a new cadre of advisors, and will likely steer towards the center next year. Battling the Democrats will likely fill Republicans’ coffers with donations from conservatives and energize the Republican base, but competing for the center may actually swell GOP ranks with support from both the Tea Party and the moderate middle. Either way, the GOP will require decisive leadership that can unify the party before the 2012 elections, when voters will render a more direct judgment on the Obama administration.
Alexander Chen ’13 is a Staff Writer.