1,144. This number represents the number of delegates that one of the four remaining Republican nominees will need to reach to avoid a brokered convention. In the news lately, we have heard a lot about this scenario, where Republican delegates would fight to the death to sway voters from one candidate to the other. However, when looking at the math, it is pretty clear that although the primary will undoubtedly continue through June, Mitt Romney will eventually garner enough support to reach the magic number.
As of last nights win in Illinois, Romney has a commanding lead with 560 delegates to Rick Santorum’s 246. Even including Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul’s delegates, we see that Romney still holds the majority of delegates at 55%.
So what does this mean for the future? Well we start with the winner-take-all states remaining.
Wisconsin (42)
A close race between Santorum and Romney is almost assured, as Santorum’s Midwest appeal collides with Romney’s win in neighboring Illinois.
Advantage: Rick Santorum
Maryland (37)
A heavily suburban moderate voter demographic that plays right into Romney’s plan.
Advantage: Mitt Romney
District of Columbia (19)
Same as Maryland
Advantage: Mitt Romney
Delaware (17)
Another very moderate state that would lean very strongly towards Romney.
Advantage: Mitt Romney
California (172)
Romney is leading in the most recent poll by 20 points.
Advantage: Mitt Romney
New Jersey (50)
Romney has the support of very popular Governor Chris Christie.
Advantage: Mitt Romney
Utah (40)
Over 65% of the state population is Mormon.
Advantage: Mitt Romney
So giving Santorum Wisconsin, which could be a stretch for him to win after Mitt’s commanding win in Illinois, Romney would still walk away from these winner-take-all states with 895 delegates. With this, Mitt only stands 249 delegates short of the finish line.
We then move on to the remaining 820 delegates in the other proportional primaries and caucuses. At this point, Mitt would only have to secure around 30% of the remaining delegates, a much lower standard than he has received thus far.
As we see, although many are intrigued by an eventful weekend in Tampa, Romney definitely has a clear road to victory. Although Santorum will argue that he still “has a shot,” it’s nearly impossible for him to stay in the race for anything more than a base-buildup for a possible 2016 shot at Obama, or a possible Vice-Presidential pick, if Romney falls just short of the magic number.
*All information gathered from realclearpolitics.com
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