Christine Li is a student member of the Harvard Public Opinion Project.
In 2020, a whopping 37 percent of the American electorate will consist of young voters, and they plan to make their votes count in the Democratic Primary. Contrary to the narrative that young voters are unorganized and unmotivated, they are more united now than ever before behind the prospect of shaping America into a country that works for them, too. This election represents a turning point, one where Democratic candidates may have to focus more on the rising youth vote if they do not want to fall short on election night. To win these votes, 2020 Democratic candidates must work to understand not only which Democratic primary campaigns have resonated with youth, but also why they have succeeded at doing so.
The Issues
To put it simply, youth just do not care about candidates’ youthfulness. According to the Harvard Public Opinion Project’s Fall 2019 Youth Poll, only 4 percent of likely voters in the Democratic Primary said youth was the top attribute they valued in a presidential candidate. Simply being young, it seems, is not enough to win over youth voters. When asked about their top choice for the Democratic primary in the spring of 2019, nearly 10 percent of young likely voters had 37-year-old Gen-X-er Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas) as their first choice, but by October only 3 percent of likely voters chose O’Rourke. Given that O’Rourke is now out of the electoral race, it seems that his youth was not enough to sustain his campaign. Moreover, the only three candidates polling at or above 10 percent among young Democratic likely voters are, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), and former Vice President Joe Biden, respectively. All three of these candidates are over 70 years of age, but clearly young voters do not mind.
So what do youth care about? Young Democrats are more focused on finding a candidate with integrity (30 percent) or a vision for America that they share (23 percent), than a candidate that talks like them, acts like them, or looks like them, according to HPOP data. In a focus group with young Democrats who planned to vote in the New Hampshire primary, one participant described Sen. Sanders’s appeal: “I feel like he’s the clearest with his plans, even though he comes off like kind of a crazy grandpa.”
The Candidates
With such a large Democratic presidential field, young Democratic primary voters have plenty of candidates to choose from. A plurality of young Americans who are likely to vote in the democratic primary (28 percent) share the sentiments of the voter from the New Hampshire focus group; Sanders is their top choice. Elizabeth Warren (22 percent) and Biden (16 percent) trail slightly behind. Clearly, there is support among young Democrats for the progressive left. However, HPOP data also shows that there is still a substantial amount of support for Biden’s more moderate vision for America. Much like the rest of the electorate, youth have nuanced ideas for the future of the country. They cannot be grouped under a single ideology, which is important for candidates to grasp.
Furthermore, preliminary support across the board is not set in stone. Especially among young moderates, who represent 43 percent of those polled by HPOP, many are still looking for a candidate. Only 37 percent of moderates who are likely to vote in the Democratic primary are satisfied with the candidates, compared to the 59 percent of liberal likely voters, who are more enthusiastic about the Democratic choices. In addition, when considering moderate contenders like Joe Biden, only 57 percent of his supporters say they are definitely going to turn out to vote for him.
While progressives are somewhat more enthusiastic about their candidates and sure in their choices, progressive support is not set in stone either. In just half a year, Elizabeth Warren has surged 18 percent in HPOP polling while Bernie Sanders has fallen 3 percent, and as of right now, only 66 percent of Sanders voters and 78 percent of Warren voters are definitely voting for their respective candidates in the primary. This suggests that many young voters are open to switching their support.
At the end of the day, it is still anybody’s race. Though a couple famous faces, especially among the progressive left, have surged in the polls, their support bases are far from concrete. Lower-polling candidates should not lose hope; there is still a chance for them to make their impact among young voters, especially moderates. They should not feel the need to run to the left. As long as they can express their own authentic vision for America, the votes will follow.
Many young voters are still waiting for the right candidate to prove that they have the right vision for America’s future. While some candidates have started to do this, there is nothing to say other candidates can not also. The success of 2020 candidates is still in flux, but candidates should know that youth voters are watching closely. Only time will tell if any of the candidates will step up to the plate and hit a home run with youth voters.
This article is part of a series analyzing data from the Harvard Public Opinion Project’s Fall 2019 Youth Poll. Other articles in the series can be found here, and the poll data can be found here.
Image Credit: Flickr/Ninian Reid