Momentum is a curious thing. Just when you think it’s on your side, it can change, fade, and then surge as if nothing had happened. Immigration, like all other political issues, suffers from the unpredictable turns of momentum. After the 2012 presidential election, the politics surrounding immigration reform changed. Democratic and Republican leaders spoke in favor of reform for the first time in a long time. The only issue was ironing out the details. Momentum was solidly on the side of immigration reform, and for the first time since the Reagan Administration comprehensive reform looked to be on the horizon.
And then reality came sinking in. Republicans refused to reward those that broke the law by allowing them a path to citizenship. To them, amnesty was both moral failure and political nightmare. But the summer of 2013 was supposed to change all that. This summer was supposed to do for immigration what the summers of 2009 and 2010 did for Obamacare. Jarring videos of grandmothers blasting Obamacare at Congressional town hall meetings changed the political calculus. But none of that happened. The National Council of La Raza, one of the Hispanic organizations leading the charge on immigration reform, did not barnstorm House Republican town halls. MSNBC and Fox News were not plastered with images of indignant DREAMers. Despite the Senate passing a bipartisan reform bill with a convincing majority, the House Republicans killed the bill with little fanfare. In the heat of the summer, the momentum behind immigration reform faded.
But the tide of reform may have turned again. Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) recently held out hope that immigration reform could come to the floor this year. Moreover, after the recent government shutdown, some argue that the Republicans will have more reason to pass immigration reform to increase their popularity throughout the country. Ultimately, this does not pass the smell test. Sure, Republican favorability is at an all-time low following the shutdown showdown. But that does not change the fundamental obstacle for passing a comprehensive overhaul.
At the end of the day, the Republican Party cannot decide whether immigration is a national issue or a local issue. For most, the impetus to pass a reform bill comes from national politics. To understand this, look at the largest Republican proponents of comprehensive reform: large donors, party leadership, big-name figures who have backed the bill like Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wisc.) and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.). Everyone mentioned, from a political standpoint, want to pass immigration reform as a way to increase Republican favorability and win the White House in 2016. It would be very difficult for a Republican candidate to win the presidency with 2012-like margins among Hispanic voters. For future potential candidates like Ryan and Rubio, this is a pressing issue that will only get worse as time goes on.
But what happens if you are not planning on running for president any time soon? What if taking a stand against party leadership will help you raise money in your district back home? Most important, does immigration matter when the issue does not directly affect most people in your district? These are exactly the questions House Republicans are asking themselves across the country.
Most House Republicans come from very conservative, safely Republican districts. For them, passing anything that even whiffs of amnesty is equivalent to political suicide. There is no chance that they would pass comprehensive reform because their constituents do not want reform. Even more problematic, these House Republicans have nothing to fear in not passing immigration reform. These same House Republicans come from overwhelmingly white districts. This significantly decreases the chances that voters in those districts are directly impacted by the lack of immigration reform. Moreover, this might explain why the summer town hall meetings lacked the flair needed to stoke the flames of reform.
In light of all this, momentum seems irrelevant. Whether or not immigration reform is the political topic of choice for a couple of weeks, there is a structural impediment to passing reform. Like so many other issues, the House Republicans and Republican leadership are coming from two completely different directions on immigration. And this issue cannot be ignored. As the Latino population continues to grow nationwide, Texas inches toward turning blue, and the white population shrinks in Republican districts, immigration reform will continue to be the elephant in the room. However, unless the Republican leadership can find a way to control the House, or House Republicans dramatically change their political calculus, comprehensive reform is dead in the water.
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