On Super Tuesday, the inconceivable became conceivable. Barring a potentially messy brokered convention in Cleveland this summer, Donald Trump has emerged as the inevitable GOP nominee. One of America’s two major parties, the party of the “Great Emancipator” Abraham Lincoln, is now led by a bombastic billionaire businessman who refused four times last Sunday to disavow the endorsement of former Klu Klux Klan leader David Duke and proposed to ban immigrant Muslims for fear of radical Islamic terrorism. In Thursday’s downright vulgar Fox News debate, the Republican race for the presidency hit a new low, when Trump abandoned a policy discussion in order to address the size of his hands and other “assets”—not financial ones. The notion of Trump entering the White House still feels incredibly remote to Americans, but the sobering reality ushered in by Super Tuesday renders that terrifying result too close for comfort.
Digesting the results, as CNN political commentator David Gergen notes, requires taking a step back from day-to-day campaign news. Though it might not seem like it, both sides of the aisle are—for good or ill—making history. The Republican Party has not seen a businessman progress so far in the race for the nomination since Wendell Willkie locked it up in 1940, only to lose to Franklin Roosevelt. Hillary Clinton has become the first woman to nearly clinch the nomination of a major party after winning seven states on Tuesday. And Bernie Sanders in his huge victory in New Hampshire became the first non-Christian (and first Jewish) candidate to win a presidential primary.
The rhetoric of Super Tuesday’s winners signaled the growing acceptance that Trump and Clinton will face off in the general election. In her victory speech, Clinton targeted Trump, claiming America needs “more love and kindness.” She also countered the Republican frontrunner’s slogan “Make America Great Again” with the line, “make America whole again.” Trump, who spoke later in the evening, was quick to denounce the jab. “She wants to make America whole again and I’m trying to figure out what is that all about. Make America great again is going to be much better than making America whole again,” he said. In addition, he took the opportunity to denigrate her long membership in establishment politics by declaring, “If she hasn’t straightened [the country] out by now, she’s not going to straighten it out in the next four years.”
To be sure, as Bernie Sanders continues his political revolution, the Vermont senator still has a shot at winning the Democratic nomination, despite the media’s characterization of his bid as unviable. Clinton’s huge lead among minority voters and support from the vast majority of Democratic superdelegates may appear to be the nails in the coffin for Sanders’ campaign, but mathematically Sanders is still within striking distance. His name recognition continues to grow and his fundraising efforts are paying dividends. As the last few months have shown, polls can change swiftly and, as in 2008, superdelegates still have time before the Democratic National Convention to switch their support from Clinton to her challenger if facts on the ground change.
Ironically, while Sanders prides himself on his anti-billionaire-class crusade, it is Trump who has delivered the biggest blows to the super-wealthy. He effectively destroyed Jeb Bush’s $150 million campaign single-handedly, and remains the frontrunner despite spending less than nearly all other competitors.
In a shocking twist on Thursday, Reuters reported that Charles and David Koch will not use their vast conservative political network to donate to anti-Trump candidates. The brothers, who last year planned to spend nearly $900 million on the 2016 election (which was later revised down to $750 million), were expected to fuel anti-Trump efforts after expressing opposition to Trump’s policy positions. In one interview, Charles Koch argued that Trump’s plan to register all Muslims would “destroy a free society.”
If the Koch brothers’ $750 million machine cannot trump Trump, what can? Clearly not former Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney, whose anti-Trump speech on Thursday influenced just about no voter in today’s Republican party. To Trump supporters, Romney is just another wealthy establishment “political eunuch,” as CNBC’s Larry Kudlow put it. Thanks to nonstop media coverage of his campaign, Trump hardly has to deplete his own fortune as the need to purchase tons of traditional advertising remains unnecessary. The Trump campaign’s incredible cost-effectiveness, for better or worse, has poked a hole in the conventional wisdom about money buying elections.
However, not every billionaire feels defeated. Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg might not be able to resist the urge to mount an Independent bid for the White House. He has been testing the waters by laying the groundwork for an Independent campaign. Bloomberg has set some time this month as the deadline for his decision on whether or not to run. For him, 2016 represents a golden opportunity, a race in which the leading Democratic candidate is plagued by an ongoing FBI investigation and the leading Republican faced with a coalition even stretching within his own party attempting to stop his candidacy. Bloomberg would not win, though, as a three-way-race scenario would most likely siphon away votes from the Democratic candidate. Meanwhile, Trump’s base of loyal white working class voters would propel him to the presidency, an unfathomable and yet plausible result.
If Clinton becomes the Democratic nominee, it is far from obvious that Sanders supporters and even moderate Democrats would unflinchingly vote for her. Take note of the vitriol with which Sanders supporters have attacked Secretary Clinton at their rallies. Many voters “feeling the Bern” view Clinton as part of the corporate-backed political establishment they seek to destroy. Center-right Democrats and Independents, on the other hand, remain ambivalent about Clinton. Just look at former Democratic presidential candidate Jim Webb, who on Friday on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” said he would not vote for Clinton but would not rule out voting for Trump. Webb may be representative of a larger trend among Democrats and Independents.
Voters should not expect a 1964-style landslide for the Democrats in which Trump becomes a reincarnation of the far-right Republican nominee Barry Goldwater. Sure, like Trump this election cycle, Goldwater made inflammatory comments on issues such as civil rights and foreign policy, once arguing for the use of tactical nuclear weapons to win the Vietnam War. Both received KKK endorsements. Yet the 1964 analogy is not quite applicable to 2016 considering that Lyndon Johnson benefited from the high popularity of President John F. Kennedy, whose assassination took place less than a year before the election. Of course, the same situation does not exist for Hillary Clinton.
Moreover, contrast Goldwater’s famous line, “extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice … and moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue” with Trump’s statement “I’m very capable of changing to anything I want to change to.” Trump is not a real conservative, let alone a far-right hardliner like Goldwater. Though his rhetoric and policy proposals verge on fascism, during most of his life he has embraced liberal positions on issues including abortion and healthcare. As New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman contends, Trump is indeed upending the 2016 race with “a totally new hybrid politics.” The lack of any ideological basis for his stances on the issues could appeal to a wider range of voters than the standard cross-section of the Republican base. His ostentatious political persona has already increased turnout in GOP primaries to levels close to those of Democratic primaries highlighted by Barack Obama’s rise in 2008.
While the anti-Trump vote remains divided between Senators Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz and Governor John Kasich, Trump’s plurality of voters will likely secure him the nomination. Once the nominee, his shape-shifting policy platform and unorthodox shock-and-awe political strategy may allow him to dramatically exceed expectations in the general election. Watch out, this is no time for complacency.