How Gingrich should navigate the 2012 presidential election
There is widespread speculation, often fueled by the man himself, that former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, who has been out of office for over a decade, will seek the Republican nomination for president in 2012.
While Gingrich, as speaker, accumulated his fair share of political enemies, his starkly conservative views have struck a chord in recent months with the Tea Party movement. In fact, Gingrich may have a unique advantage in the field of prospective GOP candidates: He combines the pragmatic experience of a Washington insider with the fierce populist rhetoric of a Washington outsider, which, of course, he has been for many years. While there are significant barriers standing in the way of his nomination, if he is able to appeal to the Tea Party base and convince moderate Republicans that he has the experience necessary to win, Newt Gingrich may actually be ready for a comeback.
Ghosts from the Past
To be a viable candidate, Gingrich would need to address those aspects of his past that make him unpopular with a large section of the electorate. During his tenure as speaker, Gingrich was charged with 84 ethics violations, and although all but one was eventually dropped, the sense that there is something seedy about Gingrich remains. Jonathan Bernstein, a consultant in crisis management and communications, told the HPR, “[Gingrich] would do well to learn from his mistakes and advocate a highly ethical approach to government.” Bernstein believes that proposing reforms that would make government more transparent would help Gingrich stay one step ahead of his critics.
Gingrich’s other possible political vulnerability is foreign policy. As Bernstein explained, “Gingrich and former President [George W.] Bush were extremely unpopular overseas.” In order to allay concerns that he could not interact effectively with the world community, Bernstein said, “He would have to seriously stress strong foreign relations to be a viable candidate.”
Running on His Record
On the whole, Gingrich’s record as speaker would be an important asset as he navigates the Republican primaries. Gingrich has a reputation for being a staunch fiscal conservative. According to David Winston, a former Gingrich advisor and a prominent Washington strategist, that reputation could appeal to an electorate still concerned about the economy. “The economy is in horrible shape, the problems are so huge, and unemployment has been 9 percent or higher for 17 months,” Winston said. “The American people are looking for someone who can solve these problems.”
Whether or not Gingrich is the man to do that is for the voters to decide, but Gingrich would no doubt stress the fact that, under his tenure as speaker, the federal government balanced the budget for the first time in decades. Certainly, President Bill Clinton deserves much credit for that accomplishment, but Gingrich would have to convince many voters that he would replicate what Congress and the president were able to achieve in the 1990s.
Channeling the Tea Party
Gingrich’s fiscal conservatism might be most appealing to the Tea Party, a group that is becoming increasingly powerful within the Republican Party. Gingrich—unlike most other candidates supported by the Tea Party—also has experience leading a coalition in Washington. The challenge for Gingrich would be to channel the energy of the Tea Party while bringing more moderates into the Republicans’ tent. As Winston said, “Gingrich understands he has to manage a majority coalition.” Politico staff writer Kenneth Vogel agrees that Gingrich will have to walk a fine line. “All smart conservatives and Republicans have endeared themselves to the Tea Party because that is where the momentum is,” Vogel told the HPR. Ultimately, though, Gingrich “is more of the establishment,” Vogel said. Few, if any, prospective candidates in the primary field have this sort of dual appeal within the Republican Party.
The midterm elections showed that there is a tremendous amount of energy in the Tea Party movement, yet one of the major criticisms of the Tea Party is that this energy is too disorganized to win a national campaign, especially if turnout is high as in a presidential election year. Ironically, Newt Gingrich—the type of Washington insider the Tea Party rails against—may be the man who can focus the Tea Party’s energy and, in doing so, reignite his political career.
Lucas Swisher ’14 is a Contributing Writer.
Photo Credit: Flickr (Gage Skidmore)