Emptying pockets, shifting concerns
Dwight D. Eisenhower once said, “The future of this republic is in the hands of the American voter.” John McCain and Barack Obama would most certainly agree. This November, American citizens cast their votes to decide the course that the nation is to take over the next four years. In a contest that was dominated by the state of the American economy, the health care system, and national security, the traditionally important issue of immigration was pushed to the sidelines. While issues of immigration are of great importance to the Hispanic community, both presidential campaigns succeeded in exploiting the community’s attention on other important issues to avoid addressing the pressing debate surrounding immigration.
Demographics & Campaign Outreach
In 2004, many argued that Bush’s ability to court Hispanic voters had a significant impact on the outcome of the election. Today, demographics in the United States portray a convincing image of this population sector’s importance to both 2008 presidential campaigns. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, by 2006, almost 15 percent of the total U.S. population was Hispanic. Although states like California and Texas continue to have the greatest concentrations, key states that have been recent battlegrounds such as New Mexico and Nevada have also shown significant increases in their Hispanic populations.
In order to attract Hispanic voters, campaigns traditionally worked to offer concrete proposals that addressed the immigration issue. However, this past election saw a change in campaigns’ strategic dynamics. “It was not an area of sharp differences between both campaigns, and it was not at the top of the political agenda,” said Douglas Rivlin, spokesman for the National Immigration Forum, in an interview with the HPR. “The number one issue facing the country is the economy, and new citizens would agree with that,” he added.
Marcelo Suárez-Orozco, a Professor of Globalization and Education at NYU told the HPR, “Both campaigns came to the judgment that immigration was not a topic they could engage in that could give added value.” He added that Obama and McCain had “decided to stay away from the topic, addressing other issues Hispanics are concerned with like the economy, education, and issues relating to the war and national security.”
Different times, new approaches
In the weeks leading up to the election, most polls focusing on voters’ concerns listed the economy as the issue foremost in Americans’ minds. These patterns were true among Hispanic voters as well, and Hispanics are right to reorient their policy concerns. A recent study by the Pew Hispanic Center showed that of a total of 116.8 million households in the U.S., more than 7% are headed by immigrants who are not U.S. citizens. The study further stated that the “current economic slowdown is hurting [Hispanic household incomes] more than it is hurting non-citizen households of other ethnic groups and origins.”
As a result of the worsening economic downturn, Hispanic voters could not take the luxury of prioritizing their concerns over immigration, a perception that both Republicans and Democrats were quick to grasp. “Whether they are Poles, Germans or Irish, newcomers to this country have traditionally voted their pocketbooks. In terms of the major issue for Hispanic-Americans on November 4, it [was] the economy, the economy, and the economy,” said George W. Grayson, Professor of Government at William & Mary, in an HPR interview.
Money talks, and in this post-electoral world, the President’s agenda will be strongly influenced by the economic horizon facing the United States. The first three months will be essential in setting the tone for the new administration’s stance on a number of issues, including immigration. Grayson remarked: “Power is like an hour glass. Once a President is sworn in, the sand begins to flow from the top to the bottom cylinder. Thus, a new chief executive must select two or three priorities and mobilize his resources to try to accomplish them.” The initial trajectory of the economy will influence broader concerns affecting the Hispanic population, and it will determine whether immigration recovers its status as a top priority for the United States. The clock is ticking and constituents are eager for results, but Hispanic voters, like the American electorate and the president himself, will find it difficult to focus their attention on such traditionally important issues until they secure their own economic well being.