Anticipating a new era of engagement with Cuba
When President Obama signed the 2009 Omnibus Appropriations Bill into law on March 11, he took a small step towards what many hope will be a new era in U.S.-Cuban relations. Embedded in the bill were three clauses that loosened sanctions on family travel and remittances, a largely humanitarian adjustment that nonetheless proved a lightning rod for controversy in the Senate. Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) decried it as “sinful” and led a vigorous bipartisan opposition that threatened to derail the $410 billion spending bill over the Cuba provisions.
In the face of international pressure, the new stance of the traditionally hard-line Cuban exile lobby, and the failure of past policy to yield democratic reform, the time is ripe for major change — perhaps even an end to the 47-year-old trade embargo. The Obama administration now has a key opportunity to ease restrictions that have stifled movements for democracy and engage with Cuba to improve relations throughout Latin America.
Self-Defeating Sanctions
Official U.S. policy has sought to isolate the Castro regime with economic sanctions, while claiming to support the Cuban people in the pursuit of social and political change. But sanctions, critics note, have provided the regime with a convenient excuse for Cuba’s problems. Without a staunch anti-Communist Cold War mentality, Harvard political science professor Jorge Domínguez explained, “you simply can’t justify the kind of nationalist, siege mentality that has characterized Cuban policy for the last half century.”
America’s counterproductive policy of isolation has hurt its chances to influence Cuba’s political future. “The effect of Bush policy was to strengthen authoritarian rule in Cuba,” Dominguez argued. By heavily limiting remittances, tightening travel restrictions, and barring the export of IT equipment, hard-line policy weakened Cubans’ popular voice against the state. The Bush administration “effectively assisted Cuban state security in censoring outside information from Cubans. Instead of preventing the export of IT equipment, we should be raining it from the clouds,” said Dominguez.
A Boon to Regional Diplomacy
The past few years have brought growing support for U.S. engagement among Latin American countries. “Most of Latin America welcomes [the omnibus provisions] but expects more,” said Marifeli Pérez-Stable, vice president for democratic governance at the Inter-American Dialogue, in an interview with the HPR. At a regional summit in December, leaders of 33 Latin American and Caribbean nations called unanimously for an end to the embargo and a reversal of restrictions on travel, remittances, and cultural exchange. Steven Levitsky, professor of Latin American politics at Harvard, suggested that improving relations with Cuba is “one relatively low-cost thing” that the United States could do to gain footing in its strained relationship with Latin America.
An end to sanctions, Levitsky added, could undermine the regional influence of Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez. “If the United States were to engage with Cuba, it might actually be able to elbow Chávez out a bit.” With less American “bullying,” said Levitsky, “it would become more difficult for Chavez to paint himself as the counter-hegemonic axis standing up to the big, bad imperialist cowboy,” an image that has already begun to fade with Obama in the saddle.
The Politics of Cuba Policy
Until recently, the Cuban exile constituency in Florida had been a powerful force for a policy of isolation and punishment. “There is zero cost geopolitically to establishing full diplomatic and trade relations with Cuba,” said Levitsky, “so the only reason for caution is electoral [calculation].” In April, however, the traditionally hard-line Cuban American National Foundation dramatically softened its stance by calling for “a new direction in U.S.-Cuba relations” based on private aid to the Cuban people and diplomatic engagement rather than sanctions.
Still, neither CANF nor the Obama administration has gone so far as to advocate ending the embargo. Dan Erikson, director of Caribbean programs at the Inter-American Dialogue, told the HPR that he did not see Obama “staking out a real change” and worried that the president had “already lost the initiative” to transform Cuba policy by neglecting it early on. But the provisions in the recent omnibus bill served as a useful symbolic gesture that could pave the way for further changes. With most of Latin America in favor of reconciliation, and domestic political constraints weakening, the tide is slowly but surely shifting toward American engagement with Cuba.