Have the FARC finally met their match?
A recent string of defeats for the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), Latin America’s oldest, largest, and most dangerous rebel group, signals perhaps the best chance Colombia has had for peace in 44 years of armed struggle. During much of the 1990s, a drug-fueled civil war between left-wing rebels, right-wing paramilitaries, and government troops claimed an average of 35,000 lives each year. But the last seven years have brought remarkable security gains, with a new government offensive that has left the FARC weaker than it has been in decades. As heartening as this turnaround has been for many Colombians, however, it will likely be short-lived unless military gains are complemented by major political and social efforts to improve the rule of law and standard of living in Colombia’s impoverished hinterlands.
Communism and Cocaine
Formed in the mid-1960s as a peasant-based Communist uprising, the FARC became increasingly menacing in the 1980s as it turned to drug production and trafficking to rake in revenue. With the cocaine epidemic in the United States and the decline of the Soviet Union, ideological purity soon took a back seat to turning a profit for much of the organization. “Ideology is a relatively minor element in the Colombian armed conflict today,” said Markus Schultze-Kraft, director of the International Crisis Group’s Latin America program, in an interview with the HPR. “There’s nobody in his right mind who would say that the FARC these days is a clear-cut Marxist-Leninist organization.” But the transformation has not reduced the palpable threat posed by this group. At their peak strength of approximately 20,000 in the late 1990s they controlled nearly half of Colombia, which was teetering on the brink of collapse by the turn of the century.
Learning to Fight Narco-Terrorism
President Alvaro Uribe, elected in 2002 on a platform of reining in guerilla warfare, has overseen an aggressive and largely successful new strategy to strike the FARC in their own territory. His administration quickly modernized and expanded Colombian security forces, taking advantage of substantial aid from U.S. anti-narcotics initiatives. Adam Isacson, Latin America program director at the Center for International Policy, told the HPR that the government’s innovative desertion program has also effectively undermined the FARC’s strength. “The program seems to be working relatively well in that it affords the opportunity for disaffected FARC members … to obtain job training in an effort to return to society as productive members of their community,” said Isacson. Uribe’s hard-nosed approach, combined with efforts to integrate deserters, has cut membership of the group in half.
Hard-liners in a Hard Land
The FARC remains determined to show that it is still a force to be reckoned with. The group, which is attempting to stage a comeback under its “Plan Rebirth,” has already bombed four Colombian cities this year. And analysts warn that the FARC is no paper tiger. “The FARC will not be defeated militarily in the short term,” Schultze-Kraft predicted. “[It] remains a formidable threat to security in Colombia.” But the prospects for a peace settlement are dim, in part because the FARC is hostile to the political process, and in part because Uribe may be too wedded to a policy of military success to consider negotiations seriously. “Uribe might not be the right person to negotiate,” said Isacson, “as he has stated that he would rather defeat the FARC militarily.”
Building a Lasting Peace
The greatest threat to peace lies in the problems endemic to the rural areas of the country where the FARC operates: extreme poverty, lack of state presence, and an established drug economy. “There will always be drugs, crime, contraband, and warlordism until you actually govern your territory [instead of] just sending patrols periodically,” Isacson warned. As long as demand for cocaine remains high abroad, production and trafficking will remain a dangerous but potentially lucrative route of escape from rural poverty.
A program of establishing rule of law, creating jobs, and building schools is therefore crucial to a sustainable peace. Douglas Farah, a security consultant and former investigative reporter on Colombia, told the HPR that the Colombian government would have to follow through with these efforts to prevent a resurgence. “My fear is that there won’t be the willpower to sustain [these projects],” Farah explained, “and the FARC will get the breathing room they need to survive and re-emerge as a threat. That’s my biggest worry.”