Russia’s campaign against missile defense in Europe
Ballistic missile defense — once derided as “Star Wars” by critics — is finally coming into its own as a major component of the geopolitical landscape in Europe. The extreme difficulty of hitting an intercontinental ballistic missile traveling at Mach 25 with a counter-missile, which experts say is like shooting a bullet with another bullet, has made its development as a practical defense a project of decades of research and billions of dollars in investment. But a planned U.S. missile defense system, based in Poland and the Czech Republic to defend Europe from a long-range Iranian attack, has attracted the ire of Russian leaders who claim that it is directed against their own nuclear capability.
Because of the complex technical questions involved, it is hard to make clear-cut, independent judgments about claims on both sides. The Russian military has called the system “an obvious threat,” while most U.S. experts are of the opposite opinion. Russian rhetoric, however, may be exaggerated for political effect; the Russians are likely more concerned with the long-term prospect of growing American military presence in Eastern Europe than the possibility that several anti-missile installations could render their thousands of nuclear warheads useless.
Cold War Mindsets
The fact that U.S. policymakers are trying to assure Moscow that the missile defense system is not directed against Russian nuclear capability, some observers worry, reveals a dangerous mindset. Pavel Podvig, research associate at the Center for International Security and Cooperation, said in an interview with the HPR that such dialogue would only increase tensions. “Once you start telling Russia that ‘this system would not be able to do anything with your potential nuclear forces,’ it strongly implies that the normal state of U.S.-Russia relations is that Russia and the United States are targeting each other with hundreds or thousands of weapons. … We start telling each other that this is normal.”
The Russian military, which contends that the system would undermine Russia’s security interests, intensified its rhetoric last year after the United States and Poland reached a key preliminary accord. The Polish government, initially reluctant to sign on to the system in the face of intense Russian opposition, quickly agreed to host several anti-missile installations after the Russian invasion of Georgia in August. In reaction, a top Russian general threatened that the Polish move “could not go unpunished” and warned that “Poland, by deploying the system, is exposing itself to a strike.” Some in the United States and Europe, eyeing these threats, are therefore wary of plans to go ahead with missile defense.
But the Russian concerns may not have much basis in fact. “The Russian concerns are just not technically or strategically valid. It just does not pose a threat to their deterrence [capability] in any way, shape, or form,” explained Dean Wilkening, senior research scientist, in an interview with the HPR. In this vein, many feel the system is so obviously incapable of challenging Russian military power that sacrificing European protection would be a poor strategic choice.
The Real Question: NATO Expansion
The missile defense debate is largely an extension of the question of NATO expansion into former Warsaw Pact states and Russia’s policy of maintaining a territorial buffer in Eastern Europe free of U.S. influence. “Russia doesn’t believe [missile defense] is a threat to their ICBMs or to their ability to pose a threat either to Europe or to the United States. … It’s just the concept of their policy being undermined. They want their policy to remain pure,” explained Gen. Tad Oelstrom, USAF (ret.), now a professor at the Harvard Kennedy School.
Perhaps sensing that the missile defense debate has become increasingly reminiscent of Cold War tensions, President Obama recently stated that he would take action to “reset” relations with Moscow. Though denying that he had any “quid pro quo” in mind, in March he hinted that Russian cooperation against the Iranian nuclear program would lessen the need for a missile defense system in Europe. Whether Obama was implying a bargain or not, however, the probability that Russian bluster is inflated for political effect makes it unlikely that U.S. policymakers will abandon their plans for missile defense solely on the basis of intensifying criticism from Moscow.