France, First Round 4/22/12
According to recent polling, incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy is currently trailing Socialist nominee François Hollande while barely edging the unelectable nationalist Marine Le Pen. Sarkozy’s attempt to remedy this sore situation by calling in German Chancellor Angela Merkel will likely accomplish nothing, except for recalling memories of unpopular austerity measures. Though such reforms like raising the retirement age to 62, seem innocuous to Americans, the French public has responded negatively. Meanwhile, the inexperienced Hollande does not have much more to offer beyond regime change, but this would likely be enough to trounce Sarkozy in a run-off. ¶
Egypt, May 2012
With the end of parliamentary elections, Egypt is heading for more political turmoil. Presidential elections have been moved up to April due to demands from activists and presidential hopeful Amr Moussa, the ex-chief of the Arab League. Moussa is widely expected to be victorious, but the Freedom and Justice Party’s momentum could propel their nominee, Khairat Al Shater. Other hopefuls include Lt. Gen. Ahmed Shafik, the al-Karama party’s Hamdeen Sabahy, and Lt. Gen. Ahmed Hossam Khairallah, who predicts that concerns about stability and economic growth will push voters toward the widely respected military. ¶
Mexico, 7/1/12
This year’s election has created a political phenomenon that everyone is buzzing about: PAN (National Action Party) candidate Josefina Vázquez Mota. Having won her conservative party’s primary with a whopping 55 percent against incumbent President Calderón’s handpicked Ernesto Cordero, she symbolizes a break from the party’s past. Voters, disillusioned by PAN’s inability to deliver on their promises, have increasingly been looking toward PRI’s (Institutional Revolutionary Party) Enrique Pena Nieto. The third candidate, Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador from the Democratic Revolution Party, has lost his former luster. Although pundits are predicting a comfortable Nieto win, polls are beginning suggest a shift in momentum. Over the upcoming months, Vázquez Mota could articulate a platform to distinguish herself from the Calderón’s presidency’s inefficacy, giving her a chance to become Mexico’s first woman President. ¶
Venezuela, 10/7/12
Chavez has been fairly cautious since the 2010 legislative elections, in which the opposition coalition claimed a majority of votes. Indeed, his position looks increasingly perilous as the opposition coalesces. Leopoldo López, one of three opposition candidates, recently threw his support behind primary opposition leader Henrique Capriles Radonski. Given these developments, Chavez strengthened his military support by appointing an army friend to Congress in an attempt to solidify his power base. However, whether this will be enough for an outright victory remains questionable. Nevertheless, given Chavez’s popularity with the electorate, especially the poor, the possibility of his winning another six year term remains quite high. ¶