Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s recent time in office has not been without excitement. In addition to dismissing half of his cabinet during a corruption scandal in late 2013, Erdogan and his regime are now under close international scrutiny for preparing a “false flag operation,” an operation organized by one country under the guise of another. Released in late March, a recording exposed several high-ranking Turkish government officials who were planning a “missile attack on Turkey.” However, the missiles would come from rebel groups in Syria, allowing Turkey to cite a “direct cause of war” and thus invade Syria. The potential area for bombardment, the Tomb of Suleiman Shah, is a sovereign Turkish territory within Syria. Currently, it is under the control of Syrian rebels, along with the surrounding area. The Turkish officials in the recording evidently were hoping to capitalize on the instability in the region to expedite an invasion.
In an effort to stop the spread of the conspiracy, Prime Minister Erdogan blocked Twitter on March 20. When the recording went viral one week later, he blocked YouTube as well. Erdogan aimed to limit public outcry leading up to the March 30 municipal elections, which were seen as a referendum on Erdogan’s government and party, the Justice and Development Party (AKP). However, even with the mounting controversy, the AKP garnered a comfortable 43.3 percent of the popular vote; the Republic People’s Party, a distant second, received 25.6 percent. Even though there were allegations of voting fraud and extortion, Erdogan got his victory.
A Landscape Ripe for Expansion
Though Erdogan was physically absent from the leaked meeting, the recording highlights his blatantly expansionist tendencies: one official noted that the “Prime Minister said that in current conjuncture, this attack must be seen as an opportunity for us.” Erdogan frequently alludes to his desires to restore the glory of the Ottoman Empire. For instance, as he celebrated his victory in the municipal elections, he asserted that he delivered an “Ottoman slap” to his political opponents. Keeping his expansionist ideology in mind and noting that Syria was once part of the Ottoman Empire, it seems that the discussions in the recording may not have been just political showboating.
The territorial disputes between Turkey and Syria shed much-needed light on these recent events, showing that Erdogan could feasibly start a war by using controversial lands as initial battlegrounds. From 1920 to 1936, France controlled Syria. In 1921, France and Turkey signed the Treaty of Ankara, which ceded the Tomb of Suleiman Shah and other lands to Turkey. In exchange, Turkey granted French companies the right to regulate railroad traffic in parts of Turkey and access to iron, chrome, and silver mines for 99 years. When Syria gained independence in 1936, they reaffirmed the previous agreement struck between the Turkish and the French. However, tensions have persisted because many Syrians have seen the 1936 agreement as illegitimate, since France continued to keep a military presence in Syria until 1940.
With this age-old tension, the Tomb of Suleiman Shah is an ideal target with which Erdogan can initiate a conflict. But these intentions were revealed by the leaked recording, which has put the national spotlight on the region and should remove it as a potential target. However, a second, equally controversial territory was not referenced by the officials: the Hatay Province. Forming the southernmost tip of Turkey, this French-owned region of Syria was ceded to the Turks in hopes that they would turn against Hitler in World War II. For decades, Syria vigorously argued that the referendum used to approve the cession was rigged, because France still exercised economic and military dominance in Syria at the time of the transfer. Although Syria finally gave up on the territorial claims to the province in 2004, many Syrians still believe that the land belongs to them.
While discussions over the Tomb of Suleiman Shah have already been leaked, there remains an ambiguity surrounding the Hatay province. It seems logical that if Erdogan wanted to invade Syria, he would aggravate an instable region such as the Hatay province. However, it is also essential to remember that with a history as long and tumultuous as the one between Turkey and Syria, there always are multiple ways to fan a flame.
An Unfavorable Political Climate
On the international front, Erdogan has long been trying to unseat Bashar al-Assad. However, it is worthwhile to ask whether Erdogan has alternative motives in the region. Considering his expansionist tendencies and the aid and arms being sent to Syrian rebels, he may be hoping to gain a strong influence once Assad is deposed. But at the moment, his plan looks far less optimistic, as many of Syria’s rebel groups have weakened under pressure from the Syrian Army.
With regard to domestic politics, Erdogan is currently in his third term as Prime Minister with a constitutional three-term limit. Naturally, one would assume that he would try to run for President, but the President is more or less a ceremonial head of state. Erdogan wants real power. As he said in his 2011 election campaign, Erdogan wants to modify the current constitution so that the President is stronger or the Prime Minister has a more flexible term limit. However, the AKP only has 317 of the 550 seats in the Grand National Assembly—not enough to pass the reform alone. Given that the opposition is largely opposed to these changes, Erdogan will have to go through the general populace, which has lost its trust in the government because of a late-2013 scandal in which his many of his close ministers and family members were charged with corruption.
A Bigger Risk-Taker
As his term ticks to a close, Erdogan has less and less to lose. In the interest of international stability, this is extremely alarming. On one hand, Erdogan could just be saber-rattling to distract domestic voters from problems at home. Certainly, this is the angle that many media outlets have taken and it is indeed logical. However, with his time in office dwindling and tensions with Syria continuing, Erdogan may choose to prompt a war with Syria. As history has shown, there is no better way to consolidate power than fighting a war in the name of self-defense.
If Erdogan truly yearns for Ottoman glory, the leak will not stop him. This is a man who won three terms as Prime Minister, who has managed to remain untouched despite the fact that hundreds in his government were charged with corruption, and who has retained his party’s strength after the recording leak exposed his potential false flag operation. If Prime Minister Erdogan wanted to invade a nation, there is no better target than Syria. Given his expansionist tendencies, Turkey’s relationship with Syria, and his current political situation, a plot such as the one revealed in the leaked recording seems possible.
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