Over the last century, the United States has always played an important role in East Asia. Military aid and political assistance to Japan and Korea to rebuild following World War II, and to Taiwan to balance the power of the People’s Republic of China, gained the United States a foot in regional geopolitics. The US still maintains military bases in Okinawa, guards the border between North and South Korea and sails destroyers down the Strait of Taiwan. However, the table appears to have been turning in recent years. Taiwan and South Korea, which dominate East Asian relations and are traditionally antagonistic to China and friendly to the United States, have become increasingly willing to put aside their differences with the mainland and distance themselves from the United States. Therefore, it becomes necessary to ask, is the United States’ sphere of influence in East Asia being eroded away as its former allies in East Asia move closer to China?
It appears that the United States is losing a lot of support in these East Asian countries. While 63% of Japanese and 41% of South Koreans view US economic influence as negative, a mere 36% of Japanese have mainly positive views of the US. Likewise, during the six party talks, Japan surprised the United States by siding with the Chinese suggestion of taking a less aggressive stance on North Korea’s nuclear program despite being the main target of aggression by North Korea. The main factor in decreasing Japanese support for the US is the latter’s military base in Okinawa, where a soldier was detained for raping a young Japanese woman in 2008, sparking popular discontent for the United States. As a result, political leaders have attempted to ride this wave of popular anti-sentiment against the US and distance itself from the superpower. Even more, Yukio Hatoyama won the 2010 election by running a campaign focused on ridding Japan of US military presence.
While using one hand to push the United States away, these countries seem to be extending the other to China. According to a leaked cable from Wikileaks, even while anti-US sentiment is rising in Japan, there is significant support for China in Japan despite China’s increased military presence. A cable from the US consulate in Okinawa reads, “Despite China’s rapidly expanding economic and military activities, including in waters near Okinawa, Okinawans claim they do not share America’s or Japan’s sense of threat from China… which is a factor in local attitudes toward U.S. military bases in Okinawa.”
Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda invited Hu Jintao to visit Japan in 2008 in an event which marked the first Chinese President to be invited to visit Japan in more than a decade. The novel event was made in an effort to promote friendlier ties between the countries. During the visit, the two leaders issued the principle of joint development, signifying Japan’s intent to associate itself with China’s economic growth rather than its political record for its own strategic purposes. Under the administration of Ma Ying-jeou, cross strait relations are better than they ever have been between Taiwan and China. In 2009, Chinese institutional investors were invited to invest in money markets in Taiwan for the first time since 1949 and Chinese officials have stopped objecting to Taiwan’s participation as an observer in the United Nations. Direct flights between Taiwan and China were also finally authorised. The ultimate sign of conciliation was the sending of two pandas from China to Taiwan.
However, countries should be advised to think twice before jumping geopolitical ships too soon. In fact, the role the United States plays in maintaining stability in the region is still very significant. The presence of the US Navy in the straits of Taiwan has kept aggressive Chinese rhetoric concerning the island at bay. Similarly, though US bases in Okinawa often create popular discontent in the region, they ultimately act as a bulwark against recent Chinese belligerence in the waters between China and Japan. In fact, Japan and China had a very acrid falling out in late 2010 when a Japanese coast guard arrested a Chinese fishing boat, exacerbating existing tensions over territorial waters.While Taiwan is fostering ties with China, this does not necessarily come at the expensive of diminished support from the United States. Although the US expressed initial caution over friendly relations between the country, the US recently sold $5.8 billion worth of arms to Taiwan, putting renewed relations between China and Taiwan at risk.
In the end, it is too soon the call the shots on declining US influence in East Asian geopolitics. For now, the United States is still, and should remain, an important player in the region.